Regular Season - 9 · 24 November 2026, 18:00 UTC

Wadi Degla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria Premier League prediction

Petrosport Stadium, Cairo

Our model says: Wadi Degla 1–0 Al Ittihad Alexandria

The model makes it 37% Wadi Degla, 31% draw, 32% Al Ittihad Alexandria — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Wadi Degla 1.11, Al Ittihad Alexandria 0.99.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Wadi Degla are 15th on 7 points from 8 games; Al Ittihad Alexandria are 5th on 14 points from 8 games — Premier League.
  • Wadi Degla have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Pyramids FC.
  • Al Ittihad Alexandria have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to El Geish.
  • Last 6 meetings: Wadi Degla 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 October 2026, ended Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–1 Wadi Degla.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Wadi Degla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria

43%
Both teams to score
35%
Over 2.5 goals
65%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Wadi Degla win Draw Al Ittihad Alexandria win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–013%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Wadi Degla first; the other scorelines share the remaining 27%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Wadi Degla at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Wadi Degla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria

Wadi Degla

Premier League

  • L1-2away to Pyramids FC29 October 2026
  • D1-1National Bank of Egypt20 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Petrojet13 October 2026
  • L0-2El Mokawloon15 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Future FC9 September 2026

Al Ittihad Alexandria

Premier League

  • D0-0El Geish30 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Ghazl El Mehalla21 October 2026
  • W2-1El Gouna FC13 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Al Masry15 September 2026
  • W1-0Asyut Petrol7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Wadi Degla did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Wadi Degla conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Wadi Degla scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Al Ittihad Alexandria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Egypt Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Wadi Degla8143810-27
5Al Ittihad Alexandria842296+314

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Wadi Degla

Chance to finish in the top six · 9% today

Win 15%
Draw 7%
Defeat 4%

Al Ittihad Alexandria

Chance to finish in the top six

Win 50%
Draw 35%
Defeat 28%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Wadi Degla vs Al Ittihad Alexandria

  • 8 October 2026Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–1 Wadi DeglaLeague Cup
  • 29 April 2026Wadi Degla 4–1 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
  • 27 October 2025Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–2 Wadi DeglaPremier League
  • 13 August 2021Wadi Degla 0–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
  • 15 April 2021Wadi Degla 1–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaCup
  • 25 February 2021Al Ittihad Alexandria 2–1 Wadi DeglaPremier League

Leading scorers: Wadi Degla and Al Ittihad Alexandria

Wadi Degla

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Al Ittihad Alexandria

GoalsAssists

  • Hossam Hassan40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Ittihad Alexandria (5th, with Wadi Degla 15th), while our numbers lean to Wadi Degla. Wadi Degla rate 0.63 in attack and 1.59 in defence, Al Ittihad Alexandria 0.58 and 1.57 (lower is better in defence), so Wadi Degla have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 7-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wadi Degla a 0% chance of the title and Al Ittihad Alexandria 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Wadi Degla Al Ittihad Alexandria
0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.58
1.59 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.57
1.11 Model expected goals (this match) 0.99

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Wadi Degla the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Wadi Degla against 0.99 for Al Ittihad Alexandria. Wadi Degla's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.57 for Al Ittihad Alexandria.

Wadi Degla carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.35 for Al Ittihad Alexandria. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Wadi Degla to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Wadi Degla to win. Then home advantage adds 1 point, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Wadi Degla's ratings add 1 point and Al Ittihad Alexandria's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage36%+1
  3. Both sides at this match's level35%−1
  4. Wadi Degla's ratings36%+1
  5. Al Ittihad Alexandria's ratings37%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Wadi DeglaAl Ittihad Alexandria
8Matches8
1W 4D 3LRecord4W 2D 2L
8 1.0 per gameGoals scored9 1.1 per game
10 1.3 per gameGoals conceded6 0.8 per game
2 of 8Clean sheets5 of 8
3 of 8Failed to score2 of 8
1 of 2Penalties scored–
22 2.8 per gameYellow cards10 1.3 per game
2Red cards0
4-2-3-1 5×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Wadi Degla at home · Al Ittihad Alexandria away

4Played4
0W 3D 1LRecord2W 1D 1L
1–3Goals for – against5–2
2 of 4Clean sheets3 of 4

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Wadi Degla 8, Al Ittihad Alexandria 8.

Wadi Degla scored 302111
Al Ittihad Alexandria conceded 002211

Wadi Degla score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Al Ittihad Alexandria have let in 0 there.

Al Ittihad Alexandria scored 200223
Wadi Degla conceded 200422

Al Ittihad Alexandria score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Wadi Degla have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Wadi Degla

  • at El Geish8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
  • vs Ceramica Cleopatra15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
  • at Abu Qair Semad22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 46%
  • vs Asyut Petrol29 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
  • at Zamalek SC4 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 23%

Al Ittihad Alexandria

  • vs Enppi8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
  • at Olympic El Qanah15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
  • vs Masr24 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
  • at Al Ahly29 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 22%
  • at National Bank of Egypt6 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 32%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.