Al Masry
vs
Asyut Petrol
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Al Masry 1–0 Asyut Petrol
The model makes it 40% Al Masry, 33% draw, 27% Asyut Petrol — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Al Masry 1.12, Asyut Petrol 0.83.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Al Masry: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Masry are 12th on 9 points from 8 games; Asyut Petrol are 18th on 6 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Al Masry have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to National Bank of Egypt.
- Asyut Petrol have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to El Gouna FC.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Masry vs Asyut Petrol
Has the model earned this number?
Al Masry at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Masry vs Asyut Petrol
Al Masry
Premier League
- D1-1away to National Bank of Egypt28 October 2026
- D1-1Abu Qair Semad19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah11 October 2026
- L0-2Al Ittihad Alexandria15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Petrojet7 September 2026
Asyut Petrol
Premier League
- D1-1El Gouna FC30 October 2026
- L0-1Zamalek SC20 October 2026
- W2-1away to Abu Qair Semad13 October 2026
- L0-2Future FC15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria7 September 2026
What these results say
- Al Masry did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Al Masry conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Masry scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asyut Petrol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Asyut Petrol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Asyut Petrol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Al Masry | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Asyut Petrol | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Al Masry
Chance to finish in the bottom three
Asyut Petrol
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Al Masry vs Asyut Petrol
- 8 May 2023Al Masry 3–1 Asyut PetrolCup
Leading scorers: Al Masry and Asyut Petrol
Al Masry
GoalsAssists
- Salah Mohsen40
Asyut Petrol
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Masry the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al Masry against 0.83 for Asyut Petrol. Al Masry's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.65 for Asyut Petrol.
How the model reaches 40% for Al Masry to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Al Masry to win. Then home advantage adds 1 point, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Al Masry's ratings add 4 points and Asyut Petrol's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage36%+1
- Both sides at this match's level34%−2
- Al Masry's ratings38%+4
- Asyut Petrol's ratings40%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Al Masry at home · Asyut Petrol away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Al Masry 8, Asyut Petrol 8.
Al Masry score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Asyut Petrol have let in 0 there.
Asyut Petrol score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Al Masry have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Masry
- at Zamalek SC9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Ghazl El Mehalla16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs El Gouna FC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Future FC27 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- vs Ceramica Cleopatra6 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Asyut Petrol
- vs Masr10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at Al Ahly15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Enppi22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Wadi Degla29 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- vs El Geish6 Jan · Premier Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.