The model rates their attack at 0.66× the league average and their defence at 1.62× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — below average at both ends by these numbers. Next they travel to Slovakia in the UEFA Nations League on 26 September 2026, a match the model gives them 19%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Next match: Moldova vs Slovakia
Moldova travel to Slovakia on 26 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The model makes it 19% Moldova, 24% draw and 57% Slovakia, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0. It projects 0.97 expected goals for Moldova against 2.47. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Full preview and model analysis for Moldova vs Slovakia