MC Oran
vs
JS Saoura
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: MC Oran 1–0 JS Saoura
The model makes it 42% MC Oran, 34% draw, 24% JS Saoura — fair odds of 2.38, 2.94 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: MC Oran 1.04, JS Saoura 0.66.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 24%, under 2.5: 76%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. MC Oran's rating is built from 38 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and JS Saoura's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- MC Oran are 5th on 15 points from 8 games; JS Saoura are 14th on 6 points from 8 games — Ligue 1.
- MC Oran are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to MC Alger.
- JS Saoura have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to CS Constantine.
- Last 6 meetings: JS Saoura 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended JS Saoura 2–0 MC Oran.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MC Oran vs JS Saoura
Has the model earned this number?
MC Oran at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MC Oran vs JS Saoura
MC Oran
Ligue 1
- L0-2away to MC Alger4 November 2026
- D0-0Olympique Akbou30 October 2026
- D0-0away to JS El Biar23 October 2026
- W1-0Khenchela17 October 2026
- W1-0away to US Biskra13 October 2026
JS Saoura
Ligue 1
- W1-0CS Constantine8 November 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad2 November 2026
- D0-0Ben Aknoun24 October 2026
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset18 October 2026
- L0-1away to USM Alger13 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for MC Oran had two goals or fewer.
- MC Oran kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for JS Saoura had two goals or fewer.
- JS Saoura failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- JS Saoura failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MC Oran | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 15 |
| 14 | JS Saoura | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
MC Oran
Chance to finish in the top two · 8% today
JS Saoura
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: MC Oran vs JS Saoura
- 13 March 2026JS Saoura 2–0 MC OranLigue 1
- 18 October 2025MC Oran 1–1 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 12 February 2025JS Saoura 2–0 MC OranLigue 1
- 24 September 2024MC Oran 2–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 17 February 2024JS Saoura 1–1 MC OranLigue 1
- 23 September 2023MC Oran 1–1 JS SaouraLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MC Oran a 2.4% chance of the title and JS Saoura 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on MC Oran v JS Saoura has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 45% / 30% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 6 updates it reads 42% / 34% / 24%: the biggest move is the draw, up 4 points.
- MC Oran win42%▼ −3
- Draw34%▲ +4
- JS Saoura win24%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MC Oran the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for MC Oran against 0.66 for JS Saoura. MC Oran's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.33 for JS Saoura.
How the model reaches 42% for MC Oran to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MC Oran to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 6 points, MC Oran's ratings add 2 points and JS Saoura's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level38%−6
- MC Oran's ratings40%+2
- JS Saoura's ratings42%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
MC Oran at home · JS Saoura away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: MC Oran 8, JS Saoura 8.
MC Oran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); JS Saoura have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
MC Oran
- vs CR Belouizdad21 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- at CS Constantine28 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Ben Aknoun1 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
- at MB Rouisset26 Dec · Ligue 1win 28%
JS Saoura
- at MC Alger21 Nov · Ligue 1win 18%
- vs Témouchent28 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- vs JS Kabylie1 Dec · Ligue 1win 31%
- at ASO Chlef26 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.