Estac Troyes
vs
Le Havre
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Estac Troyes 1–0 Le Havre
The model makes it 40% Estac Troyes, 30% draw, 30% Le Havre — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Estac Troyes 1.32, Le Havre 1.07.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Estac Troyes's rating is built from 10 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Le Havre's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Estac Troyes are 17th on 8 points from 10 games; Le Havre are bottom on 2 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Estac Troyes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Paris Saint Germain.
- Le Havre have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Lorient.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 July 2022, ended Le Havre 0–3 Estac Troyes.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre
Has the model earned this number?
Estac Troyes at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Estac Troyes vs Le Havre
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to Paris Saint Germain7 November 2026
- W2-0Le Mans31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Toulouse25 October 2026
- L1-3Lens17 October 2026
- L0-2Marseille11 October 2026
Le Havre
Ligue 1
- L0-2Lorient8 November 2026
- L1-5Paris Saint Germain30 October 2026
- L3-4away to Marseille25 October 2026
- L1-3Auxerre18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lille10 October 2026
What these results say
- Estac Troyes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estac Troyes had two goals or fewer.
- Le Havre did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Le Havre conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Estac Troyes
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 28% today
Le Havre
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 68% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre
- 20 July 2022Le Havre 0–3 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs
- 20 July 2022Estac Troyes 3–0 Le HavreFriendlies Clubs
- 15 May 2021Le Havre 3–2 Estac TroyesLigue 2
- 24 August 2020Estac Troyes 2–0 Le HavreLigue 2
- 27 January 2020Le Havre 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
- 9 August 2019Estac Troyes 1–2 Le HavreLigue 2
Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Le Havre
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Le Havre
GoalsAssists
- J. Maja40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on Estac Troyes v Le Havre has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Le Havre's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Estac Troyes win40%▲ +3
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Le Havre win30%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Estac Troyes the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Estac Troyes against 1.07 for Le Havre. Estac Troyes's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.28 for Le Havre.
How the model reaches 40% for Estac Troyes to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Estac Troyes to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Estac Troyes's ratings take away 1 point and Le Havre's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−3
- Estac Troyes's ratings39%−1
- Le Havre's ratings40%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Estac Troyes at home · Le Havre away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Estac TroyesLe Havre
Estac Troyes are 17th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 2nd and 17th so far); Le Havre are 18th after 10 (between 14th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Estac Troyes 10, Le Havre 10.
Le Havre score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Estac Troyes have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Estac Troyes
- at Nice28 Nov · Ligue 1win 21%
- vs Lyon6 Dec · Ligue 1win 24%
- at Stade Brestois 2912 Dec · Ligue 1win 19%
- vs Rennes2 Jan · Ligue 1win 28%
- at Auxerre16 Jan · Ligue 1win 28%
Le Havre
- vs Strasbourg28 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
- at Lens5 Dec · Ligue 1win 15%
- vs Le Mans12 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Paris FC2 Jan · Ligue 1win 12%
- at Nice16 Jan · Ligue 1win 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.