Regular Season - 10 · 19 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

JS Kabylie vs USM Alger Ligue 1 prediction

Hocine Ait Ahmed Stadium, Tizi Ouzou

Our model says: JS Kabylie 1–0 USM Alger

The model makes it 49% JS Kabylie, 27% draw, 24% USM Alger — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: JS Kabylie 1.70, USM Alger 1.04.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. JS Kabylie's rating is built from 38 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and USM Alger's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • JS Kabylie are 2nd on 17 points from 8 games; USM Alger are 6th on 14 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
  • JS Kabylie are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Olympique Akbou.
  • USM Alger are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to CS Constantine.
  • Last 6 meetings: JS Kabylie 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 March 2026, ended USM Alger 0–1 JS Kabylie.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: JS Kabylie vs USM Alger

53%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

JS Kabylie win Draw USM Alger win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read JS Kabylie first; the other scorelines share the remaining 40%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

JS Kabylie at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into JS Kabylie vs USM Alger

JS Kabylie

Ligue 1

  • D0-0away to Olympique Akbou7 November 2026
  • W1-0JS El Biar30 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Khenchela24 October 2026
  • W4-1US Biskra18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to ES Setif14 October 2026

USM Alger

Ligue 1

  • W2-0away to CS Constantine31 October 2026
  • D2-2CR Belouizdad24 October 2026
  • W1-0JS Saoura13 October 2026
  • L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026

What these results say

  • JS Kabylie went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • JS Kabylie scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • USM Alger scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Algeria Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2JS Kabylie8521113+817
6USM Alger7421105+514

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

JS Kabylie

Chance to finish in the top two · 36% today

Win 42%
Draw 31%
Defeat 27%

USM Alger

Chance to finish in the top two · 18% today

Win 25%
Draw 18%
Defeat 14%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: JS Kabylie vs USM Alger

  • 25 March 2026USM Alger 0–1 JS KabylieLigue 1
  • 8 December 2025JS Kabylie 1–2 USM AlgerLigue 1
  • 19 April 2025USM Alger 0–1 JS KabylieLigue 1
  • 9 November 2024JS Kabylie 0–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
  • 6 May 2024USM Alger 2–2 JS KabylieLigue 1
  • 7 October 2023JS Kabylie 1–0 USM AlgerLigue 1

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives JS Kabylie a 16.2% chance of the title and USM Alger 6.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on JS Kabylie v USM Alger has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 5 updates it reads 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is JS Kabylie's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. JS Kabylie win49%▲ +6
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. USM Alger win24%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

JS Kabylie USM Alger
0.66 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.64
1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.58
1.70 Model expected goals (this match) 1.04

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives JS Kabylie the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for JS Kabylie against 1.04 for USM Alger. JS Kabylie's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.58 for USM Alger.

JS Kabylie carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.4 for USM Alger. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 49% for JS Kabylie to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for JS Kabylie to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, JS Kabylie's ratings add 2 points and USM Alger's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 49%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. JS Kabylie's ratings46%+2
  4. USM Alger's ratings49%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

JS KabylieUSM Alger
8Matches7
5W 2D 1LRecord4W 2D 1L
11 1.4 per gameGoals scored10 1.4 per game
3 0.4 per gameGoals conceded5 0.7 per game
5 of 8Clean sheets4 of 7
2 of 8Failed to score2 of 7
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 4
14 1.8 per gameYellow cards13 1.9 per game
0Red cards2

JS Kabylie at home · USM Alger away

4Played4
4W 0D 0LRecord2W 1D 1L
7–1Goals for – against5–3
3 of 4Clean sheets2 of 4

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: JS Kabylie 8, USM Alger 7.

JS Kabylie scored 104420
USM Alger conceded 111300
USM Alger scored 123201
JS Kabylie conceded 200010

USM Alger score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); JS Kabylie have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

JS Kabylie

USM Alger

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.