Regular Season - 10 · 20 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

ASO Chlef vs Khenchela Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: ASO Chlef 1–0 Khenchela

The model makes it 42% ASO Chlef, 28% draw, 30% Khenchela — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: ASO Chlef 1.44, Khenchela 1.15.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. ASO Chlef's rating is built from 39 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and Khenchela's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • ASO Chlef are 15th on 5 points from 9 games; Khenchela are 13th on 6 points from 8 games — Ligue 1.
  • ASO Chlef have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to US Biskra.
  • Khenchela are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Témouchent.
  • Last 6 meetings: Khenchela 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 February 2026, ended Khenchela 2–2 ASO Chlef.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

All Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: ASO Chlef vs Khenchela

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

ASO Chlef win Draw Khenchela win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–08%
  5. 0–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read ASO Chlef first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

ASO Chlef at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into ASO Chlef vs Khenchela

ASO Chlef

Ligue 1

  • D0-0away to US Biskra8 November 2026
  • L1-2ES Setif30 October 2026
  • D1-1MB Rouisset24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Témouchent18 October 2026
  • D1-1MC Alger13 October 2026

Khenchela

Ligue 1

  • D1-1Témouchent8 November 2026
  • L0-2away to MC Alger31 October 2026
  • L0-3JS Kabylie24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to MC Oran17 October 2026
  • W2-0CS Constantine12 October 2026

What these results say

  • ASO Chlef did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • ASO Chlef scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ASO Chlef conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Khenchela failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Khenchela conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Khenchela had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Algeria Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15ASO Chlef9054713-65
13Khenchela813449-56

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

ASO Chlef

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today

Win 46%
Draw 59%
Defeat 65%

Khenchela

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today

Win 25%
Draw 36%
Defeat 41%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: ASO Chlef vs Khenchela

  • 4 February 2026Khenchela 2–2 ASO ChlefLigue 1
  • 30 August 2025ASO Chlef 1–2 KhenchelaLigue 1
  • 7 March 2025Khenchela 3–2 ASO ChlefLigue 1
  • 22 October 2024ASO Chlef 1–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
  • 17 May 2024ASO Chlef 4–1 KhenchelaLigue 1
  • 29 December 2023Khenchela 2–1 ASO ChlefLigue 1

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Khenchela (13th, with ASO Chlef 15th), while our numbers lean to ASO Chlef. ASO Chlef rate 0.46 in attack and 1.98 in defence, Khenchela 0.48 and 1.93 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

How the call on ASO Chlef v Khenchela has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 35% / 29% / 36% (home / draw / away). After 5 updates it reads 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is ASO Chlef's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. ASO Chlef win42%▲ +7
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Khenchela win30%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

ASO Chlef Khenchela
0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
1.98 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.93
1.44 Model expected goals (this match) 1.15

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives ASO Chlef the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for ASO Chlef against 1.15 for Khenchela. ASO Chlef's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.93 for Khenchela.

ASO Chlef carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.15 for Khenchela. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for ASO Chlef to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ASO Chlef to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, ASO Chlef's ratings change nothing and Khenchela's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. ASO Chlef's ratings43%±0
  5. Khenchela's ratings42%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

ASO ChlefKhenchela
9Matches8
0W 5D 4LRecord1W 3D 4L
7 0.8 per gameGoals scored4 0.5 per game
13 1.4 per gameGoals conceded9 1.1 per game
1 of 9Clean sheets2 of 8
4 of 9Failed to score5 of 8
–Penalties scored–
17 1.9 per gameYellow cards14 1.8 per game
3Red cards2

ASO Chlef at home · Khenchela away

5Played3
0W 3D 2LRecord0W 0D 3L
6–8Goals for – against0–4
0 of 5Clean sheets0 of 3

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: ASO Chlef 9, Khenchela 8.

ASO Chlef scored 212120
Khenchela conceded 100242
Khenchela scored 001110
ASO Chlef conceded 402222

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

ASO Chlef

Khenchela

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.