MC Alger
vs
JS Saoura
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: MC Alger 1–0 JS Saoura
The model makes it 52% MC Alger, 30% draw, 18% JS Saoura — fair odds of 1.92, 3.33 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (19%).
Expected goals: MC Alger 1.36, JS Saoura 0.58.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to MC Alger: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. MC Alger's rating is built from 37 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and JS Saoura's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- MC Alger are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games; JS Saoura are 14th on 6 points from 8 games — Ligue 1.
- MC Alger have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to JS El Biar.
- JS Saoura have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to CS Constantine.
- Last 6 meetings: MC Alger 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended JS Saoura 2–1 MC Alger.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MC Alger vs JS Saoura
Has the model earned this number?
MC Alger at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MC Alger vs JS Saoura
MC Alger
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to JS El Biar8 November 2026
- W2-0MC Oran4 November 2026
- W2-0Khenchela31 October 2026
- W1-0away to US Biskra27 October 2026
- D1-1away to ASO Chlef13 October 2026
JS Saoura
Ligue 1
- W1-0CS Constantine8 November 2026
- L0-1away to CR Belouizdad2 November 2026
- D0-0Ben Aknoun24 October 2026
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset18 October 2026
- L0-1away to USM Alger13 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for MC Alger had two goals or fewer.
- MC Alger scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for JS Saoura had two goals or fewer.
- JS Saoura failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- JS Saoura failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MC Alger | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 16 |
| 14 | JS Saoura | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
MC Alger
Chance to finish in the top two · 53% today
JS Saoura
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 16% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: MC Alger vs JS Saoura
- 5 April 2026JS Saoura 2–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 3 November 2025MC Alger 1–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 27 May 2025JS Saoura 0–0 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 29 January 2025MC Alger 1–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 25 March 2024JS Saoura 0–1 MC AlgerLigue 1
- 17 November 2023MC Alger 4–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MC Alger a 28.2% chance of the title and JS Saoura 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on MC Alger v JS Saoura has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 54% / 29% / 17% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 52% / 30% / 18%: the biggest move is MC Alger's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- MC Alger win52%▼ −2
- Draw30%▲ +1
- JS Saoura win18%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MC Alger the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for MC Alger against 0.58 for JS Saoura. MC Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.42/1.33 for JS Saoura.
How the model reaches 52% for MC Alger to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for MC Alger to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 5 points, MC Alger's ratings add 8 points and JS Saoura's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level39%−5
- MC Alger's ratings47%+8
- JS Saoura's ratings52%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
MC Alger at home · JS Saoura away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: MC Alger 7, JS Saoura 8.
MC Alger score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); JS Saoura have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
MC Alger
- at JS Kabylie23 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- at Ben Aknoun28 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%
JS Saoura
- vs Témouchent28 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- vs JS Kabylie1 Dec · Ligue 1win 31%
- at ASO Chlef26 Dec · Ligue 1win 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.