Clausura - 20 · 18 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Our model says: Sportivo Ameliano 2–1 Sportivo Luqueno

The model makes it 53% Sportivo Ameliano, 23% draw, 24% Sportivo Luqueno — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: Sportivo Ameliano 2.14, Sportivo Luqueno 1.27.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 60% of the time, over 1,915 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Sportivo Ameliano's rating is built from 39 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Luqueno's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Sportivo Ameliano are 8th on 19 points from 17 games; Sportivo Luqueno are 9th on 16 points from 17 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Sportivo Ameliano have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Deportivo Recoleta.
  • Sportivo Luqueno have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Nacional Asuncion.
  • Last 6 meetings: Sportivo Ameliano 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Sportivo Ameliano.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno

64%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Sportivo Ameliano win Draw Sportivo Luqueno win
  1. 2–110%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 3–17%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Sportivo Ameliano first; the other scorelines share the remaining 48%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Sportivo Ameliano at 53%: of 1,452 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.1% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Ameliano

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-3away to Deportivo Recoleta31 October 2026
  • L2-3Olimpia25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to 2 de Mayo12 October 2026
  • L1-2Rubio NU6 October 2026

Sportivo Luqueno

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-3Nacional Asuncion31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Libertad Asuncion23 October 2026
  • W3-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 October 2026
  • L0-3Cerro Porteno10 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Sportivo Trinidense5 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sportivo Ameliano did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Sportivo Ameliano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Ameliano had three goals or more.
  • Sportivo Luqueno conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sportivo Luqueno failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Luqueno had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Sportivo Ameliano174761924-519
9Sportivo Luqueno1751111733-1616

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Sportivo Ameliano

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today

Win 2%
Draw 14%
Defeat 26%

Sportivo Luqueno

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 73% today

Win 50%
Draw 73%
Defeat 83%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Sportivo Ameliano vs Sportivo Luqueno

  • 6 September 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 5 April 2026Sportivo Ameliano 2–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 6 February 2026Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 2 November 2025Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 16 August 2025Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 2 June 2025Sportivo Luqueno 0–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Sportivo Ameliano and Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Ameliano

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ocampos53
  • R. Torales51
  • E. Moreira50

Sportivo Luqueno

No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Luqueno
0.6 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.58
1.82 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.19
2.14 Model expected goals (this match) 1.27

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sportivo Ameliano the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano against 1.27 for Sportivo Luqueno. Sportivo Ameliano's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/2.19 for Sportivo Luqueno.

How the model reaches 53% for Sportivo Ameliano to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sportivo Ameliano to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Sportivo Ameliano's ratings add 3 points and Sportivo Luqueno's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 53%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level46%+2
  4. Sportivo Ameliano's ratings49%+3
  5. Sportivo Luqueno's ratings53%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Sportivo AmelianoSportivo Luqueno
17Matches17
4W 7D 6LRecord5W 1D 11L
19 1.1 per gameGoals scored17 1.0 per game
24 1.4 per gameGoals conceded33 1.9 per game
2 of 17Clean sheets2 of 17
3 of 17Failed to score7 of 17
4 of 4Penalties scored2 of 3
36 2.1 per gameYellow cards31 1.8 per game
4Red cards1
4-1-4-1 11×Usual shape4-1-4-1 7×

Sportivo Ameliano at home · Sportivo Luqueno away

8Played8
3W 2D 3LRecord2W 1D 5L
10–11Goals for – against8–15
2 of 8Clean sheets1 of 8

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Ameliano 17, Sportivo Luqueno 17.

Sportivo Ameliano scored 014537
Sportivo Luqueno conceded 719647

Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Sportivo Luqueno have let in 7 there.

Sportivo Luqueno scored 014245
Sportivo Ameliano conceded 216743

Sportivo Luqueno score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sportivo Ameliano have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Sportivo Ameliano

  • at Club Sp. San Lorenzo25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
  • vs Libertad Asuncion29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%

Sportivo Luqueno

  • vs Olimpia25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
  • at Deportivo Recoleta29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 23%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.