Lens
vs
Toulouse
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Lens 2–1 Toulouse
The model makes it 50% Lens, 24% draw, 26% Toulouse — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lens 2.02, Toulouse 1.31.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Lens's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Toulouse's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Lens are 11th on 13 points from 10 games; Toulouse are 12th on 13 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Lens have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Marseille.
- Toulouse have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Strasbourg.
- Last 6 meetings: Lens 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Lens 4–1 Toulouse.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lens vs Toulouse
Has the model earned this number?
Lens at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lens vs Toulouse
Lens
Ligue 1
- L1-2Marseille8 November 2026
- L0-1away to Lille30 October 2026
- W2-1Paris FC24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Estac Troyes17 October 2026
- W2-1Lyon9 October 2026
Toulouse
Ligue 1
- W3-1Strasbourg6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Marseille1 November 2026
- D0-0Estac Troyes25 October 2026
- W3-0away to Le Mans16 October 2026
- D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026
What these results say
- Lens conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lens scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lens had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lens | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Lens
Chance to finish in the top three · 7% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Lens vs Toulouse
- 21 April 2026Lens 4–1 ToulouseCoupe de France
- 17 April 2026Lens 3–2 ToulouseLigue 1
- 2 January 2026Toulouse 0–3 LensLigue 1
- 10 May 2025Toulouse 1–1 LensLigue 1
- 5 January 2025Lens 0–1 ToulouseLigue 1
- 28 January 2024Toulouse 0–2 LensLigue 1
Leading scorers: Lens and Toulouse
Lens
GoalsAssists
- F. Thauvin57
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lens a 0.3% chance of the title and Toulouse 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lens the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Lens against 1.31 for Toulouse. Lens's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.04 for Toulouse.
How the model reaches 50% for Lens to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lens to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Lens's ratings add 4 points and Toulouse's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Lens's ratings47%+4
- Toulouse's ratings50%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Lens at home · Toulouse away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LensToulouse
Lens are 11th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 2nd and 11th so far); Toulouse are 12th after 10 (between 7th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lens 10, Toulouse 10.
Lens score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Toulouse have let in 0 there.
Toulouse score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Lens have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lens
- at RB Leipzig24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 16%
- at Angers28 Nov · Ligue 1win 55%
- vs Le Havre5 Dec · Ligue 1win 65%
- vs Bodo/Glimt9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 45%
- at Nice12 Dec · Ligue 1win 40%
Toulouse
- vs Rennes29 Nov · Ligue 1win 44%
- vs Paris Saint Germain4 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- at Auxerre11 Dec · Ligue 1win 42%
- vs Angers2 Jan · Ligue 1win 59%
- at Paris FC17 Jan · Ligue 1win 21%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.