Clausura - 20 · 18 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Our model says: Deportivo Recoleta 0–1 Club Guarani

The model makes it 32% Deportivo Recoleta, 28% draw, 40% Club Guarani — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Deportivo Recoleta 1.19, Club Guarani 1.39.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,657 settled matches.

Edge to Club Guarani: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 4 November 2026. Deportivo Recoleta's rating is built from 39 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Club Guarani's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 15 points from 17 games; Club Guarani are 6th on 28 points from 17 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Deportivo Recoleta are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
  • Club Guarani have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to 2 de Mayo.
  • Last 6 meetings: Club Guarani 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 September 2026, ended Club Guarani 2–0 Deportivo Recoleta.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani

53%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Deportivo Recoleta win Draw Club Guarani win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 2–17%
  7. 0–27%

Scores read Deportivo Recoleta first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Club Guarani at 40%: of 2,649 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani

Deportivo Recoleta

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-0Sportivo Ameliano31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to 2 de Mayo24 October 2026
  • W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Nacional Asuncion12 October 2026
  • L1-2Libertad Asuncion5 October 2026

Club Guarani

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W1-02 de Mayo30 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Rubio NU23 October 2026
  • L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Libertad Asuncion11 October 2026
  • D1-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo3 October 2026

What these results say

  • Deportivo Recoleta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club Guarani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Deportivo Recoleta1743101928-915
6Club Guarani177731914+528

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Deportivo Recoleta

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 76% today

Win 59%
Draw 79%
Defeat 87%

Club Guarani

Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today

Win 51%
Draw 29%
Defeat 19%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Deportivo Recoleta vs Club Guarani

  • 7 September 2026Club Guarani 2–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 23 May 2026Deportivo Recoleta 2–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 18 March 2026Club Guarani 3–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 18 October 2025Club Guarani 2–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 4 August 2025Deportivo Recoleta 2–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 2 May 2025Deportivo Recoleta 0–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Deportivo Recoleta and Club Guarani

Deportivo Recoleta

GoalsAssists

  • A. Wlk131
  • A. González41

Club Guarani

No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Recoleta a 0% chance of the title and Club Guarani 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Deportivo Recoleta Club Guarani
0.62 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.63
1.83 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.18
1.19 Model expected goals (this match) 1.39

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta against 1.39 for Club Guarani. Deportivo Recoleta's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.18 for Club Guarani.

Deportivo Recoleta carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.55 for Club Guarani.

How the model reaches 40% for Club Guarani to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Guarani to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Deportivo Recoleta's ratings add 6 points and Club Guarani's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Deportivo Recoleta's ratings35%+6
  4. Club Guarani's ratings40%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Deportivo RecoletaClub Guarani
17Matches17
4W 3D 10LRecord7W 7D 3L
19 1.1 per gameGoals scored19 1.1 per game
28 1.6 per gameGoals conceded14 0.8 per game
3 of 17Clean sheets8 of 17
4 of 17Failed to score3 of 17
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
40 2.4 per gameYellow cards28 1.6 per game
4Red cards0
4-4-2 15×Usual shape4-1-4-1 10×

Deportivo Recoleta at home · Club Guarani away

9Played8
3W 1D 5LRecord4W 4D 0L
13–15Goals for – against8–3
2 of 9Clean sheets6 of 8

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Deportivo Recoleta 17, Club Guarani 17.

Deportivo Recoleta scored 422543
Club Guarani conceded 024433

Deportivo Recoleta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Club Guarani have let in 4 there.

Club Guarani scored 122435
Deportivo Recoleta conceded 534528

Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Deportivo Recoleta have let in 8 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Deportivo Recoleta

  • at Sportivo Trinidense25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 19%
  • vs Sportivo Luqueno29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 54%

Club Guarani

  • at Cerro Porteno25 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
  • vs Sportivo Trinidense29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 43%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.