Regular Season - 10 · 18 November 2026, 16:45 UTC

CS Constantine vs Ben Aknoun Ligue 1 prediction

Our model says: CS Constantine 2–1 Ben Aknoun

The model makes it 38% CS Constantine, 24% draw, 38% Ben Aknoun — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: CS Constantine 1.88, Ben Aknoun 1.85.

Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

A tight game: CS Constantine and Ben Aknoun are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. CS Constantine's rating is built from 39 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and Ben Aknoun's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • CS Constantine are 12th on 7 points from 9 games; Ben Aknoun are 11th on 8 points from 8 games — Ligue 1.
  • CS Constantine have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to JS Saoura.
  • Ben Aknoun have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to CR Belouizdad.
  • Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended CS Constantine 0–0 Ben Aknoun.

More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: CS Constantine vs Ben Aknoun

72%
Both teams to score
72%
Over 2.5 goals
28%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

CS Constantine win Draw Ben Aknoun win
  1. 1–19%
  2. 2–18%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 3–15%
  6. 1–35%
  7. 3–25%

Scores read CS Constantine first; the other scorelines share the remaining 54%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

CS Constantine at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into CS Constantine vs Ben Aknoun

CS Constantine

Ligue 1

  • L0-1away to JS Saoura8 November 2026
  • L0-2USM Alger31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Olympique Akbou23 October 2026
  • L2-4JS El Biar17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Khenchela12 October 2026

Ben Aknoun

Ligue 1

  • L0-1CR Belouizdad8 November 2026
  • D1-1away to MB Rouisset31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to JS Saoura24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Olympique Akbou16 October 2026
  • D2-2JS El Biar7 October 2026

What these results say

  • CS Constantine did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • CS Constantine conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • CS Constantine failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Ben Aknoun did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Ben Aknoun conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Algeria Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12CS Constantine92161118-77
11Ben Aknoun815289-18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

CS Constantine

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today

Win 42%
Draw 54%
Defeat 58%

Ben Aknoun

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today

Win 4%
Draw 8%
Defeat 10%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: CS Constantine vs Ben Aknoun

  • 13 March 2026CS Constantine 0–0 Ben AknounLigue 1
  • 18 October 2025Ben Aknoun 1–0 CS ConstantineLigue 1
  • 11 June 2024Ben Aknoun 0–1 CS ConstantineLigue 1
  • 13 April 2024CS Constantine 0–0 Ben AknounCoupe Nationale
  • 19 January 2024CS Constantine 1–1 Ben AknounLigue 1

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ben Aknoun (11th, with CS Constantine 12th), while our numbers lean to CS Constantine. CS Constantine rate 0.59 in attack and 2.48 in defence, Ben Aknoun 0.62 and 1.96 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives CS Constantine a 0% chance of the title and Ben Aknoun 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on CS Constantine v Ben Aknoun has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 48% / 23% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 38% / 24% / 38%: the biggest move is CS Constantine's chance of winning, down 10 points.

  1. CS Constantine win38%▼ −10
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. Ben Aknoun win38%▲ +9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

CS Constantine Ben Aknoun
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.62
2.48 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.96
1.88 Model expected goals (this match) 1.85

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CS Constantine the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for CS Constantine against 1.85 for Ben Aknoun. CS Constantine's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.96 for Ben Aknoun.

CS Constantine carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.28 for Ben Aknoun. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 38% for CS Constantine to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CS Constantine to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 4 points, CS Constantine's ratings take away 5 points and Ben Aknoun's ratings take away 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level48%+4
  4. CS Constantine's ratings43%−5
  5. Ben Aknoun's ratings38%−5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

CS ConstantineBen Aknoun
9Matches8
2W 1D 6LRecord1W 5D 2L
11 1.2 per gameGoals scored8 1.0 per game
18 2.0 per gameGoals conceded9 1.1 per game
2 of 9Clean sheets2 of 8
4 of 9Failed to score2 of 8
–Penalties scored1 of 1
14 1.6 per gameYellow cards17 2.1 per game
2Red cards0

CS Constantine at home · Ben Aknoun away

4Played5
2W 0D 2LRecord1W 3D 1L
9–6Goals for – against4–4
2 of 4Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: CS Constantine 9, Ben Aknoun 8.

CS Constantine scored 112321
Ben Aknoun conceded 012330

CS Constantine score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Ben Aknoun have let in 3 there.

Ben Aknoun scored 210203
CS Constantine conceded 415513

Ben Aknoun score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); CS Constantine have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

CS Constantine

Ben Aknoun

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.