ES Setif
vs
US Biskra
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: ES Setif 2–0 US Biskra
The model makes it 63% ES Setif, 22% draw, 15% US Biskra — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: ES Setif 2.17, US Biskra 0.80.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: ES Setif are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. ES Setif's rating is built from 38 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and US Biskra's from 9, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ES Setif are 10th on 9 points from 8 games; US Biskra are bottom on 4 points from 9 games — Ligue 1.
- ES Setif have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to MB Rouisset.
- US Biskra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to ASO Chlef.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Setif 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 20 June 2025, ended ES Setif 1–0 US Biskra.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ES Setif vs US Biskra
Has the model earned this number?
ES Setif at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ES Setif vs US Biskra
ES Setif
Ligue 1
- D1-1MB Rouisset7 November 2026
- W2-1away to ASO Chlef30 October 2026
- L1-2Témouchent24 October 2026
- D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
- D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
US Biskra
Ligue 1
- D0-0ASO Chlef8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Témouchent2 November 2026
- L0-1MC Alger27 October 2026
- L1-4away to JS Kabylie18 October 2026
- L0-1MC Oran13 October 2026
What these results say
- ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- US Biskra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- US Biskra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for US Biskra had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | ES Setif | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 |
| 16 | US Biskra | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
ES Setif
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 8% today
US Biskra
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 92% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: ES Setif vs US Biskra
- 20 June 2025ES Setif 1–0 US BiskraLigue 1
- 27 December 2024US Biskra 0–0 ES SetifLigue 1
- 26 April 2024US Biskra 2–2 ES SetifLigue 1
- 9 December 2023ES Setif 2–2 US BiskraLigue 1
- 10 February 2023ES Setif 3–1 US BiskraLigue 1
- 27 August 2022US Biskra 2–2 ES SetifLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives ES Setif a 0.2% chance of the title and US Biskra 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on ES Setif v US Biskra has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 60% / 24% / 16% (home / draw / away). After 5 updates it reads 63% / 22% / 15%: the biggest move is ES Setif's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- ES Setif win63%▲ +3
- Draw22%▼ −2
- US Biskra win15%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives ES Setif the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for ES Setif against 0.80 for US Biskra. ES Setif's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/2.22 for US Biskra.
How the model reaches 63% for ES Setif to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for ES Setif to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, ES Setif's ratings add 10 points and US Biskra's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- ES Setif's ratings54%+10
- US Biskra's ratings63%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
ES Setif at home · US Biskra away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: ES Setif 8, US Biskra 9.
ES Setif score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); US Biskra have let in 3 there.
US Biskra score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); ES Setif have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
ES Setif
- vs JS El Biar21 Nov · Ligue 1win 43%
- at Olympique Akbou28 Nov · Ligue 1win 26%
- at Khenchela30 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs USM Alger26 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
US Biskra
- vs Khenchela21 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- at JS El Biar28 Nov · Ligue 1win 13%
- vs MB Rouisset30 Nov · Ligue 1win 25%
- vs Olympique Akbou26 Dec · Ligue 1win 24%
- at USM Alger31 Dec · Ligue 1win 12%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.