Bayern München
vs
1. FC Köln
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Bayern München 3–0 1. FC Köln
The model makes it 80% Bayern München, 13% draw, 7% 1. FC Köln — fair odds of 1.25, 7.69 and 14.29.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Bayern München 3.50, 1. FC Köln 0.80.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%, under 2.5: 20%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Bayern München are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bayern München's rating is built from 43 Bundesliga matches and 1. FC Köln's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 697 matches.
Key facts
- Bayern München are top on 21 points from 9 games; 1. FC Köln are 15th on 9 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Bayern München are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to FSV Mainz 05.
- 1. FC Köln are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen.
- Last 6 meetings: Bayern München 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Bayern München 5–1 1. FC Köln.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln
Has the model earned this number?
Bayern München at 80%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln
Bayern München
Bundesliga
- W2-1away to FSV Mainz 057 November 2026
- D2-2Borussia Dortmund31 October 2026
- W3-1away to SC Freiburg25 October 2026
- W6-1RB Leipzig17 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026
1. FC Köln
Bundesliga
- L1-2Bayer Leverkusen8 November 2026
- D1-1away to Union Berlin1 November 2026
- D0-0FC Schalke 0424 October 2026
- L0-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt16 October 2026
- W2-1Borussia Mönchengladbach11 October 2026
What these results say
- Bayern München went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bayern München scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bayern München conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Köln failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Köln conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | +20 | 21 |
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bayern München
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 73% today
1. FC Köln
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 28% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bayern München vs 1. FC Köln
- 16 May 2026Bayern München 5–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 14 January 20261. FC Köln 1–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
- 29 October 20251. FC Köln 1–4 Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
- 13 April 2024Bayern Munich 2–0 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 24 November 20231. FC Köln 0–1 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- 27 May 20231. FC Köln 1–2 Bayern MunichBundesliga
Leading scorers: Bayern München and 1. FC Köln
Bayern München
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise63
- H. Kane48
- L. Díaz41
1. FC Köln
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bayern München a 73.3% chance of the title and 1. FC Köln 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bayern München the highest probability at 80%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.50 expected goals for Bayern München against 0.80 for 1. FC Köln. Bayern München's attack/defence rating is 1.76/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.08 for 1. FC Köln.
How the model reaches 80% for Bayern München to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Bayern München to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, Bayern München's ratings add 21 points and 1. FC Köln's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 80%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage43%+5
- Bayern München's ratings64%+21
- 1. FC Köln's ratings80%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bayern München at home · 1. FC Köln away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Bayern München1. FC Köln
Bayern München are 1st after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 4th so far); 1. FC Köln are 15th after 9 (between 2nd and 15th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Bayern München 9, 1. FC Köln 9.
Bayern München score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); 1. FC Köln have let in 2 there.
1. FC Köln score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Bayern München have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bayern München
- at Lille25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 59%
- at Hamburger SV28 Nov · Bundesligawin 71%
- vs SC Paderborn 074 Dec · Bundesligawin 75%
- vs Slavia Praha8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 57%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim13 Dec · Bundesligawin 65%
1. FC Köln
- vs SV Elversberg28 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- at FC Augsburg5 Dec · Bundesligawin 25%
- vs RB Leipzig12 Dec · Bundesligawin 19%
- at FSV Mainz 0519 Dec · Bundesligawin 26%
- vs SC Freiburg9 Jan · Bundesligawin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.