MC Oran
vs
CR Belouizdad
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: MC Oran 0–1 CR Belouizdad
The model makes it 33% MC Oran, 30% draw, 37% CR Belouizdad — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: MC Oran 1.12, CR Belouizdad 1.20.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to CR Belouizdad: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. MC Oran's rating is built from 38 Ligue 1 (Algeria) matches and CR Belouizdad's from 38, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- MC Oran are 5th on 15 points from 8 games; CR Belouizdad are top on 20 points from 8 games — Ligue 1.
- MC Oran are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to MC Alger.
- CR Belouizdad are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Ben Aknoun.
- Last 6 meetings: CR Belouizdad 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 May 2026, ended CR Belouizdad 3–1 MC Oran.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MC Oran vs CR Belouizdad
Has the model earned this number?
CR Belouizdad at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into MC Oran vs CR Belouizdad
MC Oran
Ligue 1
- L0-2away to MC Alger4 November 2026
- D0-0Olympique Akbou30 October 2026
- D0-0away to JS El Biar23 October 2026
- W1-0Khenchela17 October 2026
- W1-0away to US Biskra13 October 2026
CR Belouizdad
Ligue 1
- W1-0away to Ben Aknoun8 November 2026
- W1-0JS Saoura2 November 2026
- D2-2away to USM Alger24 October 2026
- W3-2away to JS El Biar12 October 2026
- W1-0Khenchela7 October 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for MC Oran had two goals or fewer.
- MC Oran kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CR Belouizdad went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CR Belouizdad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CR Belouizdad won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Algeria Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MC Oran | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 15 |
| 1 | CR Belouizdad | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
MC Oran
Chance to finish in the top two · 8% today
CR Belouizdad
Chance to win the league · 42% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: MC Oran vs CR Belouizdad
- 20 May 2026CR Belouizdad 3–1 MC OranLigue 1
- 29 December 2025MC Oran 1–1 CR BelouizdadLigue 1
- 17 June 2025CR Belouizdad 2–0 MC OranLigue 1
- 3 February 2025MC Oran 1–2 CR BelouizdadLigue 1
- 28 April 2024MC Oran 1–0 CR BelouizdadLigue 1
- 30 January 2024CR Belouizdad 2–0 MC OranLigue 1
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives MC Oran a 2.4% chance of the title and CR Belouizdad 42%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CR Belouizdad the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for MC Oran against 1.20 for CR Belouizdad. MC Oran's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.44 for CR Belouizdad.
How the model reaches 37% for CR Belouizdad to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CR Belouizdad to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, MC Oran's ratings add 3 points and CR Belouizdad's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- MC Oran's ratings31%+3
- CR Belouizdad's ratings37%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
MC Oran at home · CR Belouizdad away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: MC Oran 8, CR Belouizdad 8.
MC Oran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); CR Belouizdad have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
MC Oran
- at CS Constantine28 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
- at Ben Aknoun1 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
- at MB Rouisset26 Dec · Ligue 1win 28%
CR Belouizdad
- vs Olympique Akbou23 Nov · Ligue 1win 54%
- vs JS Kabylie28 Nov · Ligue 1win 46%
- at MC Alger26 Dec · Ligue 1win 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.