Liverpool
vs
Arsenal
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Liverpool 0–1 Arsenal
The model makes it 27% Liverpool, 27% draw, 46% Arsenal — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Liverpool 1.13, Arsenal 1.63.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Arsenal: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Liverpool are 5th on 12 points from 7 games; Arsenal are 2nd on 15 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Liverpool have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Brentford.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Leeds.
- Last 6 meetings: Liverpool 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 January 2026, ended Arsenal 0–0 Liverpool.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Liverpool vs Arsenal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 46% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Liverpool vs Arsenal
Liverpool
- W2-1away to Brentford17 October 2026
- L0-3Manchester City11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bournemouth20 September 2026
- D0-0Fulham12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
Arsenal
- W2-1Leeds10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Brighton19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Arsenal
- 8 January 2026Arsenal 0–0 LiverpoolPremier League
- 31 August 2025Liverpool 1–0 ArsenalPremier League
- 11 May 2025Liverpool 2–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 27 October 2024Arsenal 2–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 31 July 2024Liverpool 2–1 ArsenalFriendlies Clubs
- 4 February 2024Arsenal 3–1 LiverpoolPremier League
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Arsenal
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak50
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- B. Saka30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Liverpool carry a model rating of 7.06 against 7.32 for Arsenal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for Liverpool and 1.63 for Arsenal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Liverpool rate 1.26 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arsenal rate 1.41 and 0.56.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Liverpool a 1.7% chance of the title and Arsenal 30.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Liverpool against 1.63 for Arsenal. Liverpool's attack/defence rating is 1.26/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.41/0.56 for Arsenal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Liverpool at home · Arsenal away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
LiverpoolArsenal
Liverpool are 5th after 7 Premier League matches (between 5th and 10th so far); Arsenal are 2nd after 6 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Liverpool 7, Arsenal 6.
Liverpool score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Arsenal have let in 2 there.
Arsenal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Liverpool have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Liverpool
- at Fenerbahçe4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 29%
- at Crystal Palace8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- vs Manchester United22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
Arsenal
- at Slavia Praha4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 36%
- vs Hull City7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 61%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.