Brighton
vs
Crystal Palace
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Brighton 2–1 Crystal Palace
The model makes it 55% Brighton, 24% draw, 21% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Brighton 2.43, Crystal Palace 1.02.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Brighton are 3rd on 10 points from 5 games; Crystal Palace are 15th on 4 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Brighton are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Arsenal.
- Crystal Palace have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Leeds.
- Last 6 meetings: Crystal Palace 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Brighton 0–1 Crystal Palace.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Brighton vs Crystal Palace
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 55% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 705 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Brighton vs Crystal Palace
Brighton
- W3-0Arsenal19 September 2026
- W5-0away to Coventry13 September 2026
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
- W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026
Crystal Palace
- D0-0away to Leeds20 September 2026
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
- L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Everton22 August 2026
What these results say
- Brighton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Brighton had three goals or more.
- Crystal Palace failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Crystal Palace
- 8 February 2026Brighton 0–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 9 November 2025Crystal Palace 0–0 BrightonPremier League
- 5 April 2025Crystal Palace 2–1 BrightonPremier League
- 15 December 2024Brighton 1–3 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 3 February 2024Brighton 4–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 21 December 2023Crystal Palace 1–1 BrightonPremier League
Leading scorers: Brighton and Crystal Palace
Brighton
- P. Groß3 goals3 assists
- C. Kostoulas2 goals1 assist
- M. Yalcouyé2 goals
Crystal Palace
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Brighton carry a model rating of 7.11 against 6.75 for Crystal Palace. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.43 goals for Brighton and 1.02 for Crystal Palace. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brighton rate 1.37 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crystal Palace rate 0.90 and 1.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Brighton against 1.02 for Crystal Palace. Brighton's attack/defence rating is 1.37/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.11 for Crystal Palace.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Brighton at home · Crystal Palace away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Brighton 5, Crystal Palace 5.
Brighton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Crystal Palace have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Brighton
- at FK Jablonec22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 49%
- at Liverpool25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- at Manchester City31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
Crystal Palace
- at Beşiktaş22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 24%
- vs Newcastle25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 34%
- at Tottenham31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.