Premier League predictions

Saturday 10 October — 6 matches

• 11:30 UTC Arsenal vs Leeds — model 51% / 28% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.57 · 4.76.
• 14:00 UTC Chelsea vs Bournemouth — model 37% / 27% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.70 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
• 14:00 UTC Ipswich vs Fulham — model 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.78 · 3.45 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
• 14:00 UTC Aston Villa vs Brentford — model 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.57 · 2.94.
• 14:00 UTC Sunderland vs Brighton — model 28% / 27% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.57 · 3.70 · 2.22.
• 16:30 UTC Manchester United vs Tottenham — model 56% / 25% / 19%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.79 · 4.00 · 5.26.

Sunday 11 October — 3 matches

• 13:00 UTC Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest — model 32% / 29% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.13 · 3.45 · 2.56.
• 13:00 UTC Hull City vs Everton — model 38% / 31% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.23 · 3.23.
• 15:30 UTC Liverpool vs Manchester City — model 32% / 27% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.13 · 3.70 · 2.44.

Monday 12 October — 1 match

• 19:00 UTC Coventry vs Newcastle — model 27% / 28% / 45%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.70 · 3.57 · 2.22.

Saturday 17 October — 5 matches

• 11:30 UTC Everton vs Chelsea — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13.
• 14:00 UTC Fulham vs Hull City — model 33% / 31% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.23 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
• 14:00 UTC Manchester City vs Ipswich — model 65% / 20% / 15%, most likely 3-0, fair odds 1.54 · 5.00 · 6.67.
• 14:00 UTC Brentford vs Liverpool — model 35% / 28% / 37%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.57 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
• 16:30 UTC Newcastle vs Aston Villa — model 35% / 27% / 38%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.86 · 3.70 · 2.63. Tight game · draw in reach

Last round: the model's hits and misses

18–20 September: the model called the result of 5 of 10 matches, 1 of them to the exact score.

• Brentford 3–0 Chelsea — the model said 51% / 24% / 25%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Tottenham 2–3 Aston Villa — the model said 36% / 31% / 33%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Brighton 3–0 Arsenal — the model said 38% / 31% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Everton 1–0 Ipswich — the model said 40% / 30% / 30%, most likely 1-0: exact scoreline.
• Newcastle 2–1 Hull City — the model said 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry — the model said 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Bournemouth 0–1 Liverpool — the model said 37% / 27% / 36%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Leeds 0–0 Crystal Palace — the model said 47% / 26% / 27%, most likely 2-1: result missed.
• Manchester City 5–3 Sunderland — the model said 47% / 30% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Fulham 1–1 Manchester United — the model said 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2: result missed.