Bournemouth
vs
Sunderland
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Bournemouth 2–1 Sunderland
The model makes it 43% Bournemouth, 28% draw, 29% Sunderland — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.74, Sunderland 1.20.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Bournemouth are 17th on 3 points from 5 games; Sunderland are 14th on 4 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Bournemouth have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Liverpool.
- Sunderland are without a win in 3, most recently a 3-5 defeat away to Manchester City.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bournemouth at 43% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Bournemouth
- L0-1Liverpool20 September 2026
- D2-2Brentford12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle5 September 2026
- D1-1Everton29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026
Sunderland
- L3-5away to Manchester City20 September 2026
- L0-2Arsenal12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026
What these results say
- Bournemouth did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Sunderland
- 28 February 2026Bournemouth 1–1 SunderlandPremier League
- 29 November 2025Sunderland 3–2 BournemouthPremier League
- 29 April 2017Sunderland 0–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 5 November 2016Bournemouth 1–2 SunderlandPremier League
- 23 January 2016Sunderland 1–1 BournemouthPremier League
- 19 September 2015Bournemouth 2–0 SunderlandPremier League
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Sunderland
Bournemouth
- M. Tavernier3 goals
Sunderland
- B. Brobbey3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bournemouth carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.81 for Sunderland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Bournemouth and 1.20 for Sunderland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bournemouth rate 1.07 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sunderland rate 0.95 and 1.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sunderland, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Bournemouth against 1.20 for Sunderland. Bournemouth's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.02 for Sunderland.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bournemouth at home · Sunderland away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Bournemouth 5, Sunderland 5.
Bournemouth score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Sunderland have let in 1 there.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Bournemouth have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bournemouth
- vs AC Milan22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 35%
- at Manchester United25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Leeds31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Sunderland
- at Lech Poznan22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 27%
- vs Leeds25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at Coventry31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.