Regular Season - 13 · 1 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Baltika vs Akron Premier League prediction

Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad

Our model says: Baltika 2–0 Akron

The model makes it 56% Baltika, 25% draw, 19% Akron — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Expected goals: Baltika 1.92, Akron 0.93.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to Baltika: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • Baltika are 7th on 12 points from 10 games; Akron are 14th on 9 points from 11 games — Premier League.
  • Baltika are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Akhmat.
  • Akron have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Dinamo Makhachkala.
  • Last 6 meetings: Baltika 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 June 2026, ended Akron 0–1 Baltika.

More Russian Premier League predictions

All Russian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Baltika vs Akron

52%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Baltika win Draw Akron win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–011%
  3. 1–011%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 3–16%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Baltika first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 38%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Baltika at 56% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Baltika vs Akron

Baltika

  • D0-0away to Akhmat11 October 2026
  • L2-3Zenit16 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
  • L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026

Akron

  • D1-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FC Rostov9 October 2026
  • W2-0Akhmat17 September 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Krasnodar13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Orenburg6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Baltika failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Akron failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Akron scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Akron conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Baltika103341412+212
14Akron111641220-89

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Baltika vs Akron

  • 26 June 2026Akron 0–1 BaltikaFriendlies Clubs
  • 27 April 2026Baltika 0–1 AkronPremier League
  • 1 October 2025Baltika 3–0 AkronCup
  • 31 August 2025Akron 0–2 BaltikaPremier League
  • 29 July 2025Akron 2–1 BaltikaCup
  • 3 February 2024Baltika 5–3 AkronFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Baltika and Akron

Baltika

GoalsAssists

  • B. Gil41

Akron

GoalsAssists

  • Gilson Benchimol42

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Baltika carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.08 for Akron. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Baltika and 0.93 for Akron. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Baltika rate 0.55 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Akron rate 0.49 and 2.27.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Baltika a 0.3% chance of the title and Akron 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Baltika the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Baltika against 0.93 for Akron. Baltika's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.27 for Akron.

Season stats

BaltikaAkron
10Matches11
3W 3D 4LRecord1W 6D 4L
14 1.4 per gameGoals scored12 1.1 per game
12 1.2 per gameGoals conceded20 1.8 per game
3 of 10Clean sheets2 of 11
2 of 10Failed to score4 of 11
2 of 2Penalties scored–
22 2.2 per gameYellow cards34 3.1 per game
5-4-1 10×Usual shape4-1-4-1 5×

Baltika at home · Akron away

5Played6
1W 1D 3LRecord0W 5D 1L
6–8Goals for – against7–8
0 of 5Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Baltika 10, Akron 11.

Baltika scored 231135
Akron conceded 433127

Baltika score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Akron have let in 7 there.

Akron scored 220134
Baltika conceded 321302

Akron score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Baltika have let in 2 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Baltika

  • vs Dinamo Makhachkala8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 53%
  • at FC Orenburg21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 34%
  • vs Akhmat28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%

Akron

  • at Spartak Moscow8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 16%
  • vs Fakel21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 46%
  • at Rubin28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
  • vs FC Orenburg5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.