Celje
vs
Nafta
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Celje 1–0 Nafta
The model makes it 56% Celje, 25% draw, 19% Nafta — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Celje 1.85, Nafta 0.87.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Celje: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Celje are 6th on 15 points from 10 games; Nafta are 5th on 17 points from 12 games — 1. SNL.
- Celje have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Aluminij.
- Nafta have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Mura.
- Last 6 meetings: Celje 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended Nafta 1–3 Celje.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Celje vs Nafta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celje at 56% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Celje vs Nafta
Celje
- W1-0Aluminij10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Mura20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bravo12 September 2026
- L0-1Koper6 September 2026
- W2-0away to Aluminij2 September 2026
Nafta
- D0-0away to Mura17 October 2026
- W1-0Bravo11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Koper19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Brinje-Grosuplje11 September 2026
- W3-1Radomlje4 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celje had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 5 | Nafta | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Celje vs Nafta
- 15 August 2026Nafta 1–3 Celje1. SNL
- 18 May 2025Nafta 1–6 Celje1. SNL
- 16 March 2025Celje 3–2 Nafta1. SNL
- 1 December 2024Nafta 0–0 Celje1. SNL
- 15 September 2024Celje 3–1 Nafta1. SNL
- 22 November 2023Nafta 1–1 CeljeCup
The two sides
Celje carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.38 for Nafta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for Celje and 0.87 for Nafta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Celje rate 0.78 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nafta rate 0.57 and 1.46.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nafta, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Celje a 22.1% chance of the title and Nafta 0.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Celje the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Celje against 0.87 for Nafta. Celje's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.46 for Nafta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Celje at home · Nafta away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Celje 10, Nafta 12.
Celje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Nafta have let in 4 there.
Nafta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Celje have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Celje
- at Sturm Graz5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 27%
Nafta
- vs Olimpija Ljubljana7 Nov · 1. SNLwin 37%
- at Maribor21 Nov · 1. SNLwin 20%
- at Radomlje28 Nov · 1. SNLwin 37%
- vs Brinje-Grosuplje5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.