BSC Young Boys
vs
FC Zurich
Super League prediction
Our model says: BSC Young Boys 3–1 FC Zurich
The model makes it 68% BSC Young Boys, 17% draw, 15% FC Zurich — fair odds of 1.47, 5.88 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: BSC Young Boys 3.20, FC Zurich 1.33.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: BSC Young Boys are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- BSC Young Boys are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games; FC Zurich are 5th on 14 points from 10 games — Super League.
- BSC Young Boys are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Grasshoppers.
- FC Zurich are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to FC Thun.
- Last 6 meetings: BSC Young Boys 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 September 2026, ended FC Zurich 2–4 BSC Young Boys.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: BSC Young Boys vs FC Zurich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts BSC Young Boys at 68% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into BSC Young Boys vs FC Zurich
BSC Young Boys
- W2-0away to Grasshoppers11 October 2026
- W3-2Servette FC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Lugano12 September 2026
- D3-3FC Luzern5 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Zurich1 September 2026
FC Zurich
- W4-2FC Thun10 October 2026
- D1-1away to FC Sion19 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Grasshoppers5 September 2026
- L2-4BSC Young Boys1 September 2026
What these results say
- BSC Young Boys went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- BSC Young Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSC Young Boys conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Zurich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for FC Zurich.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 22 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC Zurich
- 1 September 2026FC Zurich 2–4 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 1 March 2026BSC Young Boys 3–0 FC ZurichSuper League
- 1 February 2026BSC Young Boys 3–0 FC ZurichSuper League
- 26 October 2025FC Zurich 2–3 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 21 April 2025BSC Young Boys 2–1 FC ZurichSuper League
- 27 February 2025FC Zurich 2–3 BSC Young BoysSchweizer Cup
Leading scorers: BSC Young Boys and FC Zurich
BSC Young Boys
GoalsAssists
- S. Essende113
- C. Fassnacht51
- A. Sanches34
FC Zurich
GoalsAssists
- U. Emmanuel43
- P. Keny41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
BSC Young Boys carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.34 for FC Zurich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.20 goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.33 for FC Zurich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
BSC Young Boys rate 1.04 in attack and 1.47 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Zurich rate 0.60 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives BSC Young Boys a 9.3% chance of the title and FC Zurich 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BSC Young Boys the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.20 expected goals for BSC Young Boys against 1.33 for FC Zurich. BSC Young Boys's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.65 for FC Zurich.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
BSC Young Boys at home · FC Zurich away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BSC Young BoysFC Zurich
BSC Young Boys are 2nd after 10 Super League matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); FC Zurich are 4th after 10 (between 4th and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: BSC Young Boys 10, FC Zurich 10.
FC Zurich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); BSC Young Boys have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
BSC Young Boys
- at FC Luzern7 Nov · Super Leaguewin 47%
- vs FC Thun21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 64%
- at FC Sion29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 34%
- at FC Vaduz5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 43%
FC Zurich
- at Servette FC8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 22%
- vs FC St. Gallen22 Nov · Super Leaguewin 34%
- at FC Vaduz28 Nov · Super Leaguewin 23%
- vs FC Lugano5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.