Lokomotiv
vs
Spartak Moscow
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv 2–1 Spartak Moscow
The model makes it 38% Lokomotiv, 27% draw, 35% Spartak Moscow — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv 1.48, Spartak Moscow 1.41.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Lokomotiv and Spartak Moscow are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Lokomotiv are 12th on 11 points from 11 games; Spartak Moscow are 5th on 20 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Lokomotiv are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to FC Krasnodar.
- Spartak Moscow are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Krylia Sovetov.
- Last 6 meetings: Spartak Moscow 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended Lokomotiv 2–0 Spartak Moscow.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow
Lokomotiv
- D3-3FC Krasnodar17 October 2026
- W5-0away to Fakel10 October 2026
- D1-1Krylia Sovetov16 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zenit12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Baltika6 September 2026
Spartak Moscow
- D1-1away to Krylia Sovetov10 October 2026
- W1-0Fakel16 September 2026
- W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
- D1-1FC Orenburg30 August 2026
What these results say
- Lokomotiv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 11 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow
- 11 July 2026Lokomotiv 2–0 Spartak MoscowFriendlies Clubs
- 5 April 2026Spartak Moscow 2–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 26 November 2025Lokomotiv 2–3 Spartak MoscowCup
- 6 November 2025Spartak Moscow 3–1 LokomotivCup
- 9 August 2025Lokomotiv 4–2 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 23 November 2024Spartak Moscow 5–2 LokomotivPremier League
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and Spartak Moscow
Lokomotiv
GoalsAssists
- N. Komlichenko31
Spartak Moscow
GoalsAssists
- M. Ugalde40
- M. Daku31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.43 for Spartak Moscow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Lokomotiv and 1.41 for Spartak Moscow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv rate 0.64 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Moscow rate 0.65 and 1.50.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Spartak Moscow, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lokomotiv a 0.1% chance of the title and Spartak Moscow 8.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lokomotiv against 1.41 for Spartak Moscow. Lokomotiv's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.5 for Spartak Moscow.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lokomotiv at home · Spartak Moscow away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Lokomotiv 11, Spartak Moscow 10.
Spartak Moscow score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Lokomotiv have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Lokomotiv
- vs Rubin6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at Rodina Moskva22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 53%
- vs Dinamo Makhachkala29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 56%
- at Akhmat5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Spartak Moscow
- vs Akron8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 62%
- at Dinamo Makhachkala22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Fakel30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.