Tottenham
vs
Coventry
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Tottenham 1–0 Coventry
The model makes it 41% Tottenham, 31% draw, 28% Coventry — fair odds of 2.44, 3.23 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tottenham 1.33, Coventry 0.91.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Tottenham are bottom on 2 points from 5 games; Coventry are 18th on 3 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Tottenham have not won in their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Aston Villa.
- Coventry have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Nottingham Forest.
- Last 2 meetings: Tottenham 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 September 2024, ended Coventry 1–2 Tottenham.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tottenham vs Coventry
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tottenham at 41% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 1,415 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tottenham vs Coventry
Tottenham
- L2-3Aston Villa19 September 2026
- D0-0Everton12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Nottingham Forest5 September 2026
- L0-2Newcastle29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Brentford22 August 2026
Coventry
- W1-0away to Nottingham Forest19 September 2026
- L0-5Brighton13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Manchester City5 September 2026
- L0-1Hull City29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arsenal21 August 2026
What these results say
- Tottenham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Tottenham failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coventry failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coventry failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Coventry conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
| 18 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tottenham vs Coventry
- 18 September 2024Coventry 1–2 TottenhamLeague Cup
- 5 January 2013Tottenham 3–0 CoventryFA Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tottenham carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.6 for Coventry. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Tottenham and 0.91 for Coventry. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tottenham rate 0.77 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Coventry rate 0.63 and 1.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Coventry, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Tottenham against 0.91 for Coventry. Tottenham's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.08 for Coventry.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Tottenham at home · Coventry away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Tottenham 5, Coventry 5.
Tottenham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Coventry have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Tottenham
- at Chelsea24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Crystal Palace31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Leeds7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- vs Ipswich21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Coventry
- vs Fulham24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Sunderland31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at Everton6 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Crystal Palace21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.