FC Orenburg
vs
CSKA Moscow
Premier League prediction
Our model says: FC Orenburg 0–1 CSKA Moscow
The model makes it 33% FC Orenburg, 30% draw, 37% CSKA Moscow — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Orenburg 1.14, CSKA Moscow 1.23.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to CSKA Moscow: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- FC Orenburg are 9th on 12 points from 10 games; CSKA Moscow are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- FC Orenburg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Dinamo Makhachkala.
- CSKA Moscow are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Rodina Moskva.
- Last 6 meetings: CSKA Moscow 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 July 2026, ended FC Orenburg 2–0 CSKA Moscow.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Moscow at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow
FC Orenburg
- W4-0Dinamo Makhachkala10 October 2026
- D0-0FC Krasnodar17 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo12 September 2026
- D2-2Akron6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Moscow30 August 2026
CSKA Moscow
- W3-0Rodina Moskva11 October 2026
- W3-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 September 2026
- D1-1Rubin12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Zenit5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Akron28 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Orenburg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Moscow conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Orenburg vs CSKA Moscow
- 11 July 2026FC Orenburg 2–0 CSKA MoscowFriendlies Clubs
- 29 November 2025CSKA Moscow 2–0 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 21 July 2025FC Orenburg 0–0 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 12 April 2025FC Orenburg 0–2 CSKA MoscowPremier League
- 4 August 2024CSKA Moscow 5–1 FC OrenburgPremier League
- 2 March 2024CSKA Moscow 1–1 OrenburgPremier League
Leading scorers: FC Orenburg and CSKA Moscow
FC Orenburg
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
CSKA Moscow
GoalsAssists
- I. Oblyakov61
- I. Oleynikov34
- L. Gondou31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Orenburg carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.39 for CSKA Moscow. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for FC Orenburg and 1.23 for CSKA Moscow. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Orenburg rate 0.47 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Moscow rate 0.62 and 1.57.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Orenburg a 0% chance of the title and CSKA Moscow 6.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Moscow the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for FC Orenburg against 1.23 for CSKA Moscow. FC Orenburg's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.57 for CSKA Moscow.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Orenburg at home · CSKA Moscow away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: FC Orenburg 10, CSKA Moscow 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Orenburg
- at Krylia Sovetov8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Baltika21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Rodina Moskva29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
CSKA Moscow
- at FC Krasnodar7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Akhmat21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- vs Zenit28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.