Dinamo Makhachkala
vs
FC Rostov
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 FC Rostov
The model makes it 40% Dinamo Makhachkala, 29% draw, 31% FC Rostov — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Dinamo Makhachkala 1.41, FC Rostov 1.18.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Dinamo Makhachkala are 6th on 13 points from 11 games; FC Rostov are 13th on 11 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Dinamo Makhachkala are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Akron.
- FC Rostov have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Akron.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 FC Rostov.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Makhachkala at 40% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov
Dinamo Makhachkala
- D1-1Akron17 October 2026
- L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026
- L1-3CSKA Moscow17 September 2026
- L2-3away to Akhmat13 September 2026
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
FC Rostov
- W1-0Akron9 October 2026
- L0-3Dynamo17 September 2026
- L0-3away to Spartak Moscow13 September 2026
- W3-1Fakel5 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Krasnodar29 August 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Makhachkala failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Makhachkala conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Rostov conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 13 |
| 13 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov
- 2 May 2026Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 FC RostovPremier League
- 4 March 2026FC Rostov 0–2 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 25 October 2025FC Rostov 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 2 October 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 FC RostovCup
- 27 August 2025FC Rostov 1–3 Dinamo MakhachkalaCup
- 9 July 2025FC Rostov 2–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov
Dinamo Makhachkala
GoalsAssists
- G. Agalarov50
FC Rostov
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Makhachkala carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.14 for FC Rostov. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.18 for FC Rostov. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.49 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Rostov rate 0.45 and 1.87.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Makhachkala the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala against 1.18 for FC Rostov. Dinamo Makhachkala's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.87 for FC Rostov.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dinamo Makhachkala at home · FC Rostov away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Dinamo Makhachkala 11, FC Rostov 10.
Dinamo Makhachkala score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); FC Rostov have let in 1 there.
FC Rostov score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Dinamo Makhachkala have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Dinamo Makhachkala
- at Baltika8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Spartak Moscow22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at Lokomotiv29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Krylia Sovetov4 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
FC Rostov
- at Zenit8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 14%
- vs Krylia Sovetov20 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs FC Krasnodar29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.