Juventus
vs
Napoli
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Juventus 1–0 Napoli
The model makes it 39% Juventus, 30% draw, 31% Napoli — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Juventus 1.26, Napoli 1.04.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Juventus are 7th on 11 points from 6 games; Napoli are 9th on 10 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Juventus have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cagliari.
- Napoli have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Venezia.
- Last 6 meetings: Napoli 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Juventus 3–0 Napoli.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juventus vs Napoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 39% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Juventus vs Napoli
Juventus
- D1-1away to Cagliari11 October 2026
- W2-0Atalanta20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
Napoli
- L0-1away to Venezia17 October 2026
- W3-0Frosinone10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fiorentina20 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
What these results say
- Juventus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Juventus had two goals or fewer.
- Napoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Napoli
Juventus and Napoli have met 6 times in the records we hold, Napoli has won 3 of them to Juventus's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Juventus won the last one 3–0 on 25 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Napoli | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 2.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Jan 2026
Serie AJuventus 3–0 Napoli - 7 Dec 2025
Serie ANapoli 2–1 Juventus - 25 Jan 2025
Serie ANapoli 2–1 Juventus - 21 Sep 2024
Serie AJuventus 0–0 Napoli - 3 Mar 2024
Serie ANapoli 2–1 Juventus - 8 Dec 2023
Serie AJuventus 1–0 Napoli
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Juventus and Napoli
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Napoli
GoalsAssists
- K. De Bruyne31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Juventus carry a model rating of 7.17 against 7.13 for Napoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Juventus and 1.04 for Napoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juventus rate 1.29 in attack and 0.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Napoli rate 1.22 and 0.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Juventus a 4.2% chance of the title and Napoli 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Juventus against 1.04 for Napoli. Juventus's attack/defence rating is 1.29/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.22/0.7 for Napoli.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Juventus at home · Napoli away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
JuventusNapoli
Juventus are 6th after 6 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Napoli are 9th after 7 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Juventus 6, Napoli 7.
Juventus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Napoli have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Juventus
- at AZ Alkmaar5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
Napoli
- at FC Porto4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 21%
- vs Lazio8 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.