Athletic Club
vs
Real Sociedad
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Athletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad
The model makes it 41% Athletic Club, 27% draw, 32% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.59, Real Sociedad 1.33.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Athletic Club are 9th on 9 points from 7 games; Real Sociedad are 6th on 13 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Athletic Club are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Valencia.
- Real Sociedad have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Deportivo La Coruna.
- Last 6 meetings: Real Sociedad 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 October 2026, ended Real Sociedad 0–1 Athletic Club.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
- D0-0away to Valencia17 October 2026
- D0-0Alaves19 September 2026
- D1-1Elche12 September 2026
- W3-0Atletico Madrid5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
Real Sociedad
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
- W3-2away to Valencia20 September 2026
- L0-3Atletico Madrid13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
What these results say
- Athletic Club went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Athletic Club kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Athletic Club had two goals or fewer.
- Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Real Sociedad had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Athletic Club | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Athletic Club and Real Sociedad have met 6 times in the records we hold, Real Sociedad has won 3 of them to Athletic Club's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Athletic Club won the last one 1–0 on 2 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Real Sociedad | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Oct 2026
Friendlies ClubsReal Sociedad 0–1 Athletic Club - 4 Mar 2026
Copa del ReyReal Sociedad 1–0 Athletic Club - 11 Feb 2026
Copa del ReyAthletic Club 0–1 Real Sociedad - 1 Feb 2026
La LigaAthletic Club 1–1 Real Sociedad - 1 Nov 2025
La LigaReal Sociedad 3–2 Athletic Club - 4 May 2025
La LigaReal Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Club
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.24 | 1.13 |
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Athletic Club carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.91 for Real Sociedad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Athletic Club and 1.33 for Real Sociedad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Athletic Club rate 0.87 in attack and 0.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad rate 1.24 and 1.13.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Real Sociedad, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Athletic Club the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Athletic Club against 1.33 for Real Sociedad. Athletic Club's attack/defence rating is 0.87/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.24/1.13 for Real Sociedad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Athletic Club at home · Real Sociedad away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Athletic ClubReal Sociedad
Athletic Club are 9th after 7 La Liga matches (between 7th and 19th so far); Real Sociedad are 6th after 8 (between 6th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Athletic Club 7, Real Sociedad 8.
Real Sociedad score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Athletic Club have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Athletic Club
- at Osasuna7 Nov · La Ligawin 37%
- vs Espanyol22 Nov · La Ligawin 46%
- at Malaga29 Nov · La Ligawin 41%
Real Sociedad
- vs Lyon5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 42%
- vs Rayo Vallecano8 Nov · La Ligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.