Nottingham Forest
vs
Arsenal
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal
The model makes it 24% Nottingham Forest, 29% draw, 47% Arsenal — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 0.85, Arsenal 1.66.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Nottingham Forest are 13th on 5 points from 5 games; Arsenal are 2nd on 12 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Nottingham Forest have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Coventry.
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Brighton.
- Last 6 meetings: Arsenal 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 47% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
- L0-1Coventry19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aston Villa12 September 2026
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
- L0-1Leeds22 August 2026
Arsenal
- L0-3away to Brighton19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland12 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
What these results say
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arsenal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
- 17 January 2026Nottingham Forest 0–0 ArsenalPremier League
- 13 September 2025Arsenal 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 26 February 2025Nottingham Forest 0–0 ArsenalPremier League
- 23 November 2024Arsenal 3–0 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 30 January 2024Nottingham Forest 1–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 12 August 2023Arsenal 2–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
Leading scorers: Nottingham Forest and Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Arsenal
- B. Saka3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nottingham Forest carry a model rating of 6.91 against 7.32 for Arsenal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.85 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.66 for Arsenal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nottingham Forest rate 0.95 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arsenal rate 1.41 and 0.56.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Nottingham Forest against 1.66 for Arsenal. Nottingham Forest's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.41/0.56 for Arsenal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nottingham Forest at home · Arsenal away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Nottingham Forest 5, Arsenal 5.
Arsenal score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Nottingham Forest have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Nottingham Forest
- at Ipswich23 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- at Brentford31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs Manchester City7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- at Bournemouth21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Arsenal
- at Bayern München21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 28%
- vs Everton24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 53%
- at Liverpool1 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.