Girona
vs
Almeria
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Girona 2–1 Almeria
The model makes it 47% Girona, 25% draw, 28% Almeria — fair odds of 2.13, 4.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Girona 1.88, Almeria 1.32.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Girona's rating is built from 11 Segunda División matches and Almeria's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,052 matches.
Key facts
- Girona are 4th on 21 points from 11 games; Almeria are top on 25 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Girona are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-1 win at home to Celta de Vigo II.
- Almeria are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Oviedo.
- Last 6 meetings: Girona 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 January 2024, ended Almeria 0–0 Girona.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Girona vs Almeria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 47% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Girona vs Almeria
Girona
Segunda División
- W5-1Celta de Vigo II24 October 2026
- W2-0FC Andorra18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tenerife12 October 2026
- D0-0Mallorca4 October 2026
- W2-0Albacete25 September 2026
Almeria
Segunda División
- D2-2Oviedo24 October 2026
- W4-2away to Real Sociedad II17 October 2026
- W3-0Leganes11 October 2026
- W2-1Burgos3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mallorca27 September 2026
What these results say
- Girona went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Girona scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Girona had two goals or fewer.
- Almeria went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Almeria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Almeria won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 21 |
| 1 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Girona vs Almeria
- 14 January 2024Almeria 0–0 GironaLa Liga
- 22 October 2023Girona 5–2 AlmeriaLa Liga
- 17 February 2023Girona 6–2 AlmeriaLa Liga
- 20 October 2022Almeria 3–2 GironaLa Liga
- 27 March 2022Almeria 0–1 GironaSegunda División
- 4 October 2021Girona 1–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Girona and Almeria
Girona
GoalsAssists
- V. Vanat52
- Y. Asprilla51
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente71
- B. Cipenga34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Girona carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.71 for Almeria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Girona and 1.32 for Almeria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Girona rate 0.93 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Almeria rate 0.97 and 1.31.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Almeria, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Girona a 16.7% chance of the title and Almeria 26.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Girona against 1.32 for Almeria. Girona's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.31 for Almeria.
How the model reaches 47% for Girona to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Girona to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Girona's ratings take away 5 points and Almeria's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Girona's ratings38%−5
- Almeria's ratings47%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Girona at home · Almeria away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GironaAlmeria
Girona are 4th after 11 Segunda División matches (between 2nd and 16th so far); Almeria are 1st after 11 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Girona 11, Almeria 11.
Almeria score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Girona have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Girona
- at Oviedo14 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- vs Eibar22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 48%
- at Eldense29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 40%
- vs Valladolid6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 60%
Almeria
- vs FC Andorra14 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 56%
- at AD Ceuta FC22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 53%
- vs Sporting Gijon29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 51%
- at Castellón6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.