Las Palmas
vs
Eldense
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Las Palmas 2–1 Eldense
The model makes it 39% Las Palmas, 27% draw, 34% Eldense — fair odds of 2.56, 3.70 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Las Palmas 1.50, Eldense 1.35.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Las Palmas's rating is built from 55 Segunda División matches and Eldense's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,052 matches.
Key facts
- Las Palmas are 13th on 14 points from 11 games; Eldense are 12th on 14 points from 10 games — Segunda División.
- Las Palmas have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Real Sociedad II.
- Eldense are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Valladolid.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Las Palmas vs Eldense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Las Palmas at 39% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Las Palmas vs Eldense
Las Palmas
Segunda División
- W1-0Real Sociedad II24 October 2026
- L0-3Castellón17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Mallorca11 October 2026
- D2-2Valladolid4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Eibar27 September 2026
Eldense
Segunda División
- W3-2away to Valladolid18 October 2026
- W2-1Cordoba10 October 2026
- W4-1Oviedo2 October 2026
- L0-1away to Burgos27 September 2026
- L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
What these results say
- Las Palmas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Eldense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Eldense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Eldense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Eldense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Las Palmas carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.55 for Eldense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Las Palmas and 1.35 for Eldense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Las Palmas rate 0.70 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Eldense rate 0.76 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Eldense, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Las Palmas a 0.1% chance of the title and Eldense 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Las Palmas the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Las Palmas against 1.35 for Eldense. Las Palmas's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.39 for Eldense.
How the model reaches 39% for Las Palmas to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Las Palmas to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Las Palmas's ratings take away 19 points and Eldense's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Las Palmas's ratings24%−19
- Eldense's ratings39%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Las Palmas at home · Eldense away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Las PalmasEldense
Las Palmas are 13th after 11 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Eldense are 12th after 10 (between 11th and 21st). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Las Palmas 11, Eldense 10.
Eldense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Las Palmas have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Las Palmas
- at Granada CF15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 28%
- at Sporting Gijon22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 26%
- vs FC Andorra29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 42%
- at Cordoba6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 31%
Eldense
- vs Sabadell15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 38%
- at Castellón22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 21%
- vs Girona29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.