Sabadell
vs
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Sabadell 1–0 Real Sociedad II
The model makes it 49% Sabadell, 28% draw, 23% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sabadell 1.59, Real Sociedad II 0.92.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,296 settled matches.
Edge to Sabadell: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Sabadell's rating is built from 11 Segunda División matches and Real Sociedad II's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,056 matches.
Key facts
- Sabadell are 10th on 17 points from 11 games; Real Sociedad II are 20th on 8 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Sabadell have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Tenerife.
- Real Sociedad II have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Las Palmas.
- Last 4 meetings: Real Sociedad II 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 February 2024, ended Real Sociedad II 0–1 Sabadell.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabadell at 49% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 2,300 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II
Sabadell
Segunda División
- D1-1Tenerife25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Burgos18 October 2026
- W2-1away to AD Ceuta FC10 October 2026
- D0-0FC Andorra4 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II26 September 2026
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División
- L0-1away to Las Palmas24 October 2026
- L2-4Almeria17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Celta de Vigo II10 October 2026
- L2-3Granada CF4 October 2026
- L1-3away to AD Ceuta FC26 September 2026
What these results say
- Sabadell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sabadell had two goals or fewer.
- Real Sociedad II did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 17 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II
- 17 February 2024Real Sociedad II 0–1 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 5 November 2023Sabadell 1–2 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 2 April 2023Real Sociedad II 1–1 SabadellPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 5 November 2022Sabadell 1–2 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
The two sides
Sabadell carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.44 for Real Sociedad II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Sabadell and 0.92 for Real Sociedad II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sabadell rate 0.60 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad II rate 0.74 and 1.71.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sabadell a 0.6% chance of the title and Real Sociedad II 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabadell the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sabadell against 0.92 for Real Sociedad II. Sabadell's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.71 for Real Sociedad II.
How the model reaches 49% for Sabadell to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sabadell to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Sabadell's ratings take away 15 points and Real Sociedad II's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Sabadell's ratings28%−15
- Real Sociedad II's ratings49%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sabadell at home · Real Sociedad II away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SabadellReal Sociedad II
Sabadell are 10th after 11 Segunda División matches (between 3rd and 13th so far); Real Sociedad II are 20th after 11 (between 4th and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Sabadell 11, Real Sociedad II 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sabadell
- at Eldense15 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 33%
- vs Granada CF22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 44%
- at Leganes29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Eibar6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 36%
Real Sociedad II
- vs Sporting Gijon14 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 39%
- vs Cadiz22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
- at Valladolid29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 29%
- vs Leganes6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.