Sporting Gijon
vs
Valladolid
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Sporting Gijon 1–0 Valladolid
The model makes it 49% Sporting Gijon, 27% draw, 24% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.64, Valladolid 1.01.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Sporting Gijon's rating is built from 52 Segunda División matches and Valladolid's from 53, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,052 matches.
Key facts
- Sporting Gijon are 7th on 19 points from 10 games; Valladolid are 15th on 12 points from 11 games — Segunda División.
- Sporting Gijon are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Albacete.
- Valladolid have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Granada CF.
- Last 6 meetings: Valladolid 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Sporting Gijon 2–4 Valladolid.
More Segunda División predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Gijon at 49% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid
Sporting Gijon
Segunda División
- W2-1Albacete17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz11 October 2026
- W3-2Celta de Vigo II4 October 2026
- L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
Valladolid
Segunda División
- L1-2away to Granada CF23 October 2026
- L2-3Eldense18 October 2026
- W5-0Albacete12 October 2026
- D2-2away to Las Palmas4 October 2026
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Gijon won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Gijon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Gijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Valladolid had three goals or more.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 19 |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid
- 8 August 2026Sporting Gijon 2–4 ValladolidFriendlies Clubs
- 22 February 2026Sporting Gijon 2–2 ValladolidSegunda División
- 19 October 2025Valladolid 2–3 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 17 February 2024Sporting Gijon 1–1 ValladolidSegunda División
- 11 August 2023Valladolid 2–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 28 January 2022Valladolid 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Valladolid
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting Gijon carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.45 for Valladolid. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.01 for Valladolid. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Gijon rate 0.70 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Valladolid rate 0.68 and 1.52.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting Gijon a 2.2% chance of the title and Valladolid 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Gijon the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sporting Gijon against 1.01 for Valladolid. Sporting Gijon's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.52 for Valladolid.
How the model reaches 49% for Sporting Gijon to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sporting Gijon to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Sporting Gijon's ratings take away 15 points and Valladolid's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage43%+7
- Sporting Gijon's ratings28%−15
- Valladolid's ratings49%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sporting Gijon at home · Valladolid away
League matches only, Segunda División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sporting GijonValladolid
Sporting Gijon are 7th after 10 Segunda División matches (between 1st and 14th so far); Valladolid are 15th after 11 (between 9th and 21st). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda División matches this season: Sporting Gijon 10, Valladolid 11.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sporting Gijon
- at Real Sociedad II14 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 37%
- vs Las Palmas22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 47%
- at Almeria29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 24%
Valladolid
- vs Castellón14 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 27%
- at Celta de Vigo II22 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 32%
- vs Real Sociedad II29 Nov · Segunda Divisiónwin 46%
- at Girona6 Dec · Segunda Divisiónwin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.