Clausura - 21 · 25 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Libertad Asuncion vs 2 de Mayo Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Our model says: Libertad Asuncion 1–0 2 de Mayo

The model makes it 52% Libertad Asuncion, 27% draw, 21% 2 de Mayo — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: Libertad Asuncion 1.63, 2 de Mayo 0.83.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Libertad Asuncion: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Libertad Asuncion's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and 2 de Mayo's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Libertad Asuncion are 3rd on 33 points from 19 games; 2 de Mayo are 6th on 30 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Nacional Asuncion.
  • 2 de Mayo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sportivo Luqueno.
  • Last 6 meetings: Libertad Asuncion 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 September 2026, ended 2 de Mayo 0–2 Libertad Asuncion.

More Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Libertad Asuncion vs 2 de Mayo

46%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Libertad Asuncion win Draw 2 de Mayo win
  1. 1–013%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read Libertad Asuncion first; the other scorelines share the remaining 33%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Libertad Asuncion at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs 2 de Mayo

Libertad Asuncion

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-0Nacional Asuncion7 November 2026
  • L0-1Cerro Porteno4 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo31 October 2026
  • W1-0Sportivo Luqueno23 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Sportivo Trinidense18 October 2026

2 de Mayo

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L0-3away to Sportivo Luqueno9 November 2026
  • D0-0Sportivo Trinidense3 November 2026
  • L0-1away to Club Guarani30 October 2026
  • D1-1Deportivo Recoleta24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Olimpia17 October 2026

What these results say

  • 2 de Mayo did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • 2 de Mayo failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 2 de Mayo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Libertad Asuncion1910362820+833
62 de Mayo198651821-330

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Libertad Asuncion

Chance to finish in the top four · 86% today

Win 96%
Draw 81%
Defeat 60%

2 de Mayo

Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today

Win 39%
Draw 10%
Defeat 4%

From our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs 2 de Mayo

  • 11 September 20262 de Mayo 0–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 14 May 2026Libertad Asuncion 0–0 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 13 March 20262 de Mayo 0–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 21 September 2025Libertad Asuncion 0–1 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 11 July 20252 de Mayo 0–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 1 June 20252 de Mayo 0–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and 2 de Mayo

Libertad Asuncion

GoalsAssists

  • E. Vera162

2 de Mayo

GoalsAssists

  • D. Acosta51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Libertad Asuncion 2 de Mayo
0.7 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.51
1.35 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.43
1.63 Model expected goals (this match) 0.83

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Libertad Asuncion the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion against 0.83 for 2 de Mayo. Libertad Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.43 for 2 de Mayo.

How the model reaches 52% for Libertad Asuncion to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Libertad Asuncion to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Libertad Asuncion's ratings add 6 points and 2 de Mayo's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 52%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Libertad Asuncion's ratings48%+6
  5. 2 de Mayo's ratings52%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Libertad Asuncion2 de Mayo
19Matches19
10W 3D 6LRecord8W 6D 5L
28 1.5 per gameGoals scored18 0.9 per game
20 1.1 per gameGoals conceded21 1.1 per game
5 of 19Clean sheets7 of 19
4 of 19Failed to score7 of 19
4 of 4Penalties scored2 of 2
39 2.1 per gameYellow cards45 2.4 per game
2Red cards4
4-4-2 12×Usual shape4-1-4-1 2×

Libertad Asuncion at home · 2 de Mayo away

10Played10
6W 2D 2LRecord4W 2D 4L
18–9Goals for – against10–15
3 of 10Clean sheets2 of 10

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Libertad Asuncion 19, 2 de Mayo 19.

Libertad Asuncion scored 334755
2 de Mayo conceded 241337

Libertad Asuncion score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); 2 de Mayo have let in 3 there.

2 de Mayo scored 314353
Libertad Asuncion conceded 536132

2 de Mayo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Libertad Asuncion have let in 3 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Libertad Asuncion

  • at Sportivo Ameliano29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 43%

2 de Mayo

  • vs Nacional Asuncion29 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.