Gagra
vs
Dinamo Tbilisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Gagra 0–1 Dinamo Tbilisi
The model makes it 20% Gagra, 28% draw, 52% Dinamo Tbilisi — fair odds of 5.00, 3.57 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Gagra 0.79, Dinamo Tbilisi 1.60.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Dinamo Tbilisi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Gagra's rating is built from 68 Erovnuli Liga matches and Dinamo Tbilisi's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Gagra are 9th on 31 points from 32 games; Dinamo Tbilisi are 3rd on 58 points from 32 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Gagra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Iberia 1999.
- Dinamo Tbilisi are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Dila.
- Last 6 meetings: Gagra 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 September 2026, ended Dinamo Tbilisi 4–0 Gagra.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Has the model earned this number?
Dinamo Tbilisi at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Gagra
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-1away to FC Iberia 19999 November 2026
- D2-2Rustavi1 November 2026
- D0-0away to Spaeri23 October 2026
- L1-3Dinamo Batumi17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Samgurali11 October 2026
Dinamo Tbilisi
Erovnuli Liga
- W2-0away to Dila8 November 2026
- D0-0FC Iberia 199931 October 2026
- W2-0away to Rustavi23 October 2026
- W3-1Spaeri18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi11 October 2026
What these results say
- Gagra did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gagra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Tbilisi had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gagra | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 52 | 32 | +20 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gagra
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 98% today
Dinamo Tbilisi
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 42% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Gagra vs Dinamo Tbilisi
- 14 September 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 4–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 14 June 2026Gagra 2–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 21 April 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 21 November 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 2–4 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 13 September 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 16 May 2025Gagra 1–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Gagra and Dinamo Tbilisi
Gagra
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Tbilisi
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos22
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gagra a 0% chance of the title and Dinamo Tbilisi 41.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Gagra against 1.60 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Gagra's attack/defence rating is 0.37/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.44 for Dinamo Tbilisi.
How the model reaches 52% for Dinamo Tbilisi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Tbilisi to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Gagra's ratings add 10 points and Dinamo Tbilisi's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Both sides at this match's level31%−1
- Gagra's ratings41%+10
- Dinamo Tbilisi's ratings52%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gagra at home · Dinamo Tbilisi away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Gagra 32, Dinamo Tbilisi 32.
Gagra score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Dinamo Tbilisi have let in 4 there.
Dinamo Tbilisi score most often in the 61–75 minute window (13 goals); Gagra have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Gagra
- at Torpedo Kutaisi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 20%
- at Meshakhte5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 33%
Dinamo Tbilisi
- at Meshakhte29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 55%
- vs Samgurali5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.