Hibernian
vs
Dundee
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Hibernian 2–1 Dundee
The model makes it 46% Hibernian, 27% draw, 27% Dundee — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hibernian 1.70, Dundee 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Hibernian's rating is built from 50 Scottish Premiership matches and Dundee's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 543 matches.
Key facts
- Hibernian are 10th on 11 points from 12 games; Dundee are 5th on 17 points from 12 games — Premiership.
- Hibernian have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Aberdeen.
- Dundee have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to St Johnstone.
- Last 6 meetings: Hibernian 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Dundee 1–2 Hibernian.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hibernian vs Dundee
Has the model earned this number?
Hibernian at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hibernian vs Dundee
Hibernian
Premiership
- W4-0away to Aberdeen7 November 2026
- D1-1away to St Mirren28 October 2026
- L1-2Celtic25 October 2026
- L1-2Falkirk17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026
Dundee
Premiership
- L1-2away to St Johnstone7 November 2026
- W3-1Kilmarnock28 October 2026
- L1-2away to St Mirren24 October 2026
- D2-2Rangers17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk10 October 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundee scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundee conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Dundee had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
| 5 | Dundee | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Hibernian
Chance to finish in the top six · 37% today
Dundee
Chance to finish in the top six · 53% today
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Dundee
- 30 August 2026Dundee 1–2 HibernianPremiership
- 28 February 2026Dundee 3–3 HibernianPremiership
- 22 November 2025Hibernian 2–0 DundeePremiership
- 3 August 2025Dundee 1–2 HibernianPremiership
- 13 April 2025Hibernian 4–0 DundeePremiership
- 23 November 2024Dundee 4–1 HibernianPremiership
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Dundee
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- C. Wright31
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- B. Fink40
- J. Westley40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dundee (fifth, with Hibernian tenth), while our numbers lean to Hibernian. Hibernian rate 0.63 in attack and 1.41 in defence, Dundee 0.64 and 1.59 (lower is better in defence), so Hibernian have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
How the call on Hibernian v Dundee has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 4 updates it reads 46% / 27% / 27%: the biggest move is Hibernian's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Hibernian win46%▲ +2
- Draw27%=
- Dundee win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hibernian the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Hibernian against 1.19 for Dundee. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.59 for Dundee.
How the model reaches 46% for Hibernian to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hibernian to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Hibernian's ratings add 1 point and Dundee's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Hibernian's ratings44%+1
- Dundee's ratings46%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Hibernian at home · Dundee away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
HibernianDundee
Hibernian are 10th after 12 Premiership matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Dundee are 5th after 12 (between 2nd and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Hibernian 12, Dundee 12.
Hibernian score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Dundee have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Hibernian
- at Motherwell28 Nov · Premiershipwin 32%
- at Kilmarnock2 Dec · Premiershipwin 42%
- vs Rangers7 Dec · Premiershipwin 28%
- at Celtic13 Dec · Premiershipwin 16%
Dundee
- at Aberdeen28 Nov · Premiershipwin 37%
- vs Celtic2 Dec · Premiershipwin 24%
- vs Falkirk5 Dec · Premiershipwin 38%
- at Kilmarnock12 Dec · Premiershipwin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.