Erovnuli Liga predictions

8 matches ahead, from 4 October to 17 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: FC Iberia 1999, 45% against Meshakhte. 2 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.

Sunday 4 October — 1 match

15:00 UTC FC Iberia 1999 vs Dinamo Tbilisi — model 37% / 30% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.70 · 3.33 · 3.03.

Saturday 10 October — 3 matches

11:30 UTC Meshakhte vs FC Iberia 1999 — model 25% / 30% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.00 · 3.33 · 2.22.
14:00 UTC Rustavi vs Dila — model 35% / 32% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.86 · 3.13 · 3.03. Tight game · draw in reach
16:00 UTC Spaeri vs Torpedo Kutaisi — model 30% / 27% / 43%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.33 · 3.70 · 2.33.

Sunday 11 October — 2 matches

11:30 UTC Samgurali vs Gagra — model 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.57 · 3.13.
14:00 UTC Dinamo Batumi vs Dinamo Tbilisi — model 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.78 · 3.57 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach

Saturday 17 October — 2 matches

11:30 UTC Samgurali vs Meshakhte — model 44% / 28% / 28%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.27 · 3.57 · 3.57.
14:00 UTC Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi — model 30% / 29% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.33 · 3.45 · 2.44.

Last round: the model's hits and misses

19–21 September: the model called the result of 3 of 5 matches.

Gagra 1–1 Meshakhte — the model said 34% / 34% / 32%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Samgurali 2–3 Dinamo Tbilisi — the model said 34% / 31% / 35%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
Dinamo Batumi 3–2 Torpedo Kutaisi — the model said 56% / 26% / 18%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Rustavi 0–2 FC Iberia 1999 — the model said 50% / 28% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Spaeri 1–4 Dila — the model said 36% / 27% / 37%, most likely 1-2: result correct.