Spaeri
vs
Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Spaeri 1–0 Meshakhte
The model makes it 46% Spaeri, 28% draw, 26% Meshakhte — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Spaeri 1.53, Meshakhte 1.03.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Spaeri's rating is built from 34 Erovnuli Liga matches and Meshakhte's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Spaeri are 8th on 31 points from 32 games; Meshakhte are bottom on 20 points from 32 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Spaeri are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Dinamo Batumi.
- Meshakhte have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Torpedo Kutaisi.
- Last 6 meetings: Spaeri 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Meshakhte 2–2 Spaeri.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spaeri vs Meshakhte
Has the model earned this number?
Spaeri at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Spaeri vs Meshakhte
Spaeri
Erovnuli Liga
- W3-2Dinamo Batumi7 November 2026
- D0-0away to Samgurali31 October 2026
- D0-0Gagra23 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Tbilisi18 October 2026
- D3-3Torpedo Kutaisi10 October 2026
Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga
- L2-3Torpedo Kutaisi7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi1 November 2026
- W2-1Dila24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Samgurali17 October 2026
- L1-2FC Iberia 199910 October 2026
What these results say
- Spaeri failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spaeri | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 31 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 32 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 25 | 53 | -28 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Spaeri
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 97% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Spaeri vs Meshakhte
- 5 September 2026Meshakhte 2–2 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 25 May 2026Spaeri 2–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
- 7 April 2026Meshakhte 0–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 26 October 2025Meshakhte 0–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga 2
- 30 August 2025Spaeri 1–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
- 15 May 2025Meshakhte 0–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga 2
How the call on Spaeri v Meshakhte has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 46% / 28% / 26%: the biggest move is Spaeri's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Spaeri win46%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Meshakhte win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spaeri the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Spaeri against 1.03 for Meshakhte. Spaeri's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/2.18 for Meshakhte.
How the model reaches 46% for Spaeri to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Spaeri to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Spaeri's ratings add 4 points and Meshakhte's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Both sides at this match's level39%−1
- Spaeri's ratings43%+4
- Meshakhte's ratings46%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Spaeri at home · Meshakhte away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Spaeri 32, Meshakhte 32.
Spaeri score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Meshakhte have let in 10 there.
Meshakhte score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Spaeri have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Spaeri
- at Rustavi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 21%
- at Dila5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 25%
Meshakhte
- at Rustavi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 17%
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 18%
- vs Gagra5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.