Spaeri
vs
FC Iberia 1999
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Spaeri 0–1 FC Iberia 1999
The model makes it 24% Spaeri, 27% draw, 49% FC Iberia 1999 — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Spaeri 1.00, FC Iberia 1999 1.63.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,531 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Iberia 1999 are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 1 November 2026. Spaeri's rating is built from 33 Erovnuli Liga matches and FC Iberia 1999's from 67, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 520 matches.
Key facts
- Spaeri are 9th on 28 points from 31 games; FC Iberia 1999 are 2nd on 56 points from 31 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Spaeri have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Samgurali.
- FC Iberia 1999 are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Dinamo Tbilisi.
- Last 4 meetings: FC Iberia 1999 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 September 2026, ended FC Iberia 1999 1–0 Spaeri.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spaeri vs FC Iberia 1999
Has the model earned this number?
FC Iberia 1999 at 49%: of 2,529 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.4% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Spaeri vs FC Iberia 1999
Spaeri
Erovnuli Liga
- D0-0away to Samgurali31 October 2026
- D0-0Gagra23 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Tbilisi18 October 2026
- D3-3Torpedo Kutaisi10 October 2026
- L1-4Dila21 September 2026
FC Iberia 1999
Erovnuli Liga
- D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi31 October 2026
- W3-2Torpedo Kutaisi26 October 2026
- W2-0away to Dila19 October 2026
- W2-1away to Meshakhte10 October 2026
- L1-2Dinamo Tbilisi4 October 2026
What these results say
- Spaeri did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spaeri | 31 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Spaeri vs FC Iberia 1999
- 13 September 2026FC Iberia 1999 1–0 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 12 June 2026FC Iberia 1999 1–1 SpaeriErovnuli Liga
- 22 April 2026Spaeri 0–2 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
- 20 April 2021Spaeri 0–1 FC Iberia 1999David Kipiani Cup
The two sides
Spaeri carry a model rating of 6.03 against 6.35 for FC Iberia 1999.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Spaeri and 1.63 for FC Iberia 1999.
Spaeri rate 0.44 in attack and 2.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.56 and 1.53.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spaeri a 0% chance of the title and FC Iberia 1999 25.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Iberia 1999 the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Spaeri against 1.63 for FC Iberia 1999. Spaeri's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.53 for FC Iberia 1999.
How the model reaches 49% for FC Iberia 1999 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Iberia 1999 to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Spaeri's ratings add 8 points and FC Iberia 1999's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Spaeri's ratings40%+8
- FC Iberia 1999's ratings49%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Spaeri at home · FC Iberia 1999 away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Spaeri 31, FC Iberia 1999 31.
Spaeri score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); FC Iberia 1999 have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Spaeri
- vs Meshakhte20 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 43%
- at Rustavi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 21%
- at Dila5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 22%
FC Iberia 1999
- at Samgurali21 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 47%
- vs Getafe26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
- vs Dinamo Batumi30 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.