Samgurali
vs
FC Iberia 1999
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Samgurali 1–2 FC Iberia 1999
The model makes it 26% Samgurali, 26% draw, 48% FC Iberia 1999 — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Samgurali 1.13, FC Iberia 1999 1.72.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to FC Iberia 1999: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Samgurali's rating is built from 68 Erovnuli Liga matches and FC Iberia 1999's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Samgurali are 7th on 39 points from 32 games; FC Iberia 1999 are 2nd on 59 points from 32 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Samgurali are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Rustavi.
- FC Iberia 1999 are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Gagra.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Iberia 1999 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended FC Iberia 1999 2–1 Samgurali.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Samgurali vs FC Iberia 1999
Has the model earned this number?
FC Iberia 1999 at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Samgurali vs FC Iberia 1999
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-2away to Rustavi7 November 2026
- D0-0Spaeri31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Dinamo Batumi24 October 2026
- W2-0Meshakhte17 October 2026
- W3-0Gagra11 October 2026
FC Iberia 1999
Erovnuli Liga
- W1-0Gagra9 November 2026
- D0-0away to Dinamo Tbilisi31 October 2026
- W3-2Torpedo Kutaisi26 October 2026
- W2-0away to Dila19 October 2026
- W2-1away to Meshakhte10 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Iberia 1999 went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Samgurali | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 39 |
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Samgurali
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
FC Iberia 1999
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 32% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Samgurali vs FC Iberia 1999
- 5 September 2026FC Iberia 1999 2–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 25 May 2026Samgurali 3–2 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
- 7 April 2026FC Iberia 1999 2–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 8 November 2025FC Iberia 1999 2–0 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 29 August 2025Samgurali 0–1 FC Iberia 1999Erovnuli Liga
- 11 May 2025FC Iberia 1999 2–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Samgurali a 0% chance of the title and FC Iberia 1999 32.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Iberia 1999 the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Samgurali against 1.72 for FC Iberia 1999. Samgurali's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.48 for FC Iberia 1999.
How the model reaches 48% for FC Iberia 1999 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Iberia 1999 to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Samgurali's ratings add 9 points and FC Iberia 1999's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Samgurali's ratings41%+9
- FC Iberia 1999's ratings48%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Samgurali at home · FC Iberia 1999 away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Samgurali 32, FC Iberia 1999 32.
Samgurali score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); FC Iberia 1999 have let in 9 there.
FC Iberia 1999 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Samgurali have let in 11 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Samgurali
- vs Torpedo Kutaisi25 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 32%
- at Dila30 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 26%
- at Dinamo Tbilisi5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 17%
FC Iberia 1999
- vs Getafe26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 28%
- vs Dinamo Batumi30 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 43%
- vs Rustavi5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 40%
- vs FK Crvena Zvezda10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.