Regular Season - 33 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Dinamo Batumi vs Rustavi Erovnuli Liga prediction

Batumi Arena, Batumi

Our model says: Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Rustavi

The model makes it 39% Dinamo Batumi, 29% draw, 32% Rustavi — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Dinamo Batumi 1.30, Rustavi 1.12.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Dinamo Batumi's rating is built from 68 Erovnuli Liga matches and Rustavi's from 32, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.

Key facts

  • Dinamo Batumi are top on 59 points from 32 games; Rustavi are 4th on 56 points from 32 games — Erovnuli Liga.
  • Dinamo Batumi have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Spaeri.
  • Rustavi have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Samgurali.
  • Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Batumi 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 September 2026, ended Rustavi 0–1 Dinamo Batumi.

More Erovnuli Liga predictions

All Erovnuli Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Dinamo Batumi vs Rustavi

50%
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Dinamo Batumi win Draw Rustavi win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Dinamo Batumi first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Batumi at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Dinamo Batumi vs Rustavi

Dinamo Batumi

Erovnuli Liga

  • L2-3away to Spaeri7 November 2026
  • W1-0Meshakhte1 November 2026
  • W3-0Samgurali24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Gagra17 October 2026
  • W1-0Dinamo Tbilisi11 October 2026

Rustavi

Erovnuli Liga

  • W2-0Samgurali7 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Gagra1 November 2026
  • L0-2Dinamo Tbilisi23 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi18 October 2026
  • W3-1Dila10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Dinamo Batumi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dinamo Batumi won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Rustavi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Dinamo Batumi3217875640+1659
4Rustavi3216884028+1256

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Dinamo Batumi

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 21% today

Win 33%
Draw 17%
Defeat 8%

Rustavi

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 5% today

Win 11%
Draw 3%
Defeat <1%

From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Dinamo Batumi vs Rustavi

  • 4 September 2026Rustavi 0–1 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
  • 25 May 2026Dinamo Batumi 1–0 RustaviErovnuli Liga
  • 7 April 2026Rustavi 3–0 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
  • 21 April 2021Rustavi 0–2 Dinamo BatumiDavid Kipiani Cup
  • 24 November 2019Dinamo Batumi 2–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
  • 31 August 2019Rustavi 0–2 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Batumi a 21.2% chance of the title and Rustavi 5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Dinamo Batumi v Rustavi has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Dinamo Batumi's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Dinamo Batumi win39%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Rustavi win32%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Dinamo Batumi Rustavi
0.62 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.47
1.87 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.41
1.30 Model expected goals (this match) 1.12

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dinamo Batumi the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Dinamo Batumi against 1.12 for Rustavi. Dinamo Batumi's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.41 for Rustavi.

Dinamo Batumi carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.32 for Rustavi. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Dinamo Batumi to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Batumi to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Dinamo Batumi's ratings add 1 point and Rustavi's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage40%+4
  3. Both sides at this match's level39%−1
  4. Dinamo Batumi's ratings40%+1
  5. Rustavi's ratings39%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Dinamo BatumiRustavi
32Matches32
17W 8D 7LRecord16W 8D 8L
56 1.8 per gameGoals scored40 1.3 per game
40 1.3 per gameGoals conceded28 0.9 per game
10 of 32Clean sheets13 of 32
6 of 32Failed to score7 of 32
7 of 7Penalties scored3 of 4
66 2.1 per gameYellow cards56 1.8 per game
3Red cards0
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-3-3 6×

Dinamo Batumi at home · Rustavi away

16Played16
11W 3D 2LRecord5W 8D 3L
31–18Goals for – against17–15
6 of 16Clean sheets5 of 16

League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Dinamo Batumi 32, Rustavi 32.

Dinamo Batumi scored 121112777
Rustavi conceded 125866
Rustavi scored 767289
Dinamo Batumi conceded 24671011

Rustavi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Dinamo Batumi have let in 11 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Dinamo Batumi

Rustavi

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.