Rustavi
vs
Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Rustavi 1–0 Meshakhte
The model makes it 55% Rustavi, 28% draw, 17% Meshakhte — fair odds of 1.82, 3.57 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Rustavi 1.53, Meshakhte 0.63.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Rustavi are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Rustavi's rating is built from 32 Erovnuli Liga matches and Meshakhte's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Rustavi are 4th on 56 points from 32 games; Meshakhte are bottom on 20 points from 32 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Rustavi have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Samgurali.
- Meshakhte have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Torpedo Kutaisi.
- Last 6 meetings: Rustavi 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 September 2026, ended Meshakhte 0–1 Rustavi.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rustavi vs Meshakhte
Has the model earned this number?
Rustavi at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rustavi vs Meshakhte
Rustavi
Erovnuli Liga
- W2-0Samgurali7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Gagra1 November 2026
- L0-2Dinamo Tbilisi23 October 2026
- W1-0away to Torpedo Kutaisi18 October 2026
- W3-1Dila10 October 2026
Meshakhte
Erovnuli Liga
- L2-3Torpedo Kutaisi7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi1 November 2026
- W2-1Dila24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Samgurali17 October 2026
- L1-2FC Iberia 199910 October 2026
What these results say
- Rustavi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Meshakhte failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Rustavi | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 56 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 32 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 25 | 53 | -28 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rustavi
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 5% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Rustavi vs Meshakhte
- 14 September 2026Meshakhte 0–1 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 13 June 2026Rustavi 1–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
- 22 April 2026Meshakhte 0–0 RustaviErovnuli Liga
- 6 December 2025Rustavi 1–2 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
- 5 October 2025Meshakhte 1–3 RustaviErovnuli Liga 2
- 11 August 2025Rustavi 1–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rustavi a 5% chance of the title and Meshakhte 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rustavi the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Rustavi against 0.63 for Meshakhte. Rustavi's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/2.18 for Meshakhte.
How the model reaches 55% for Rustavi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rustavi to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Rustavi's ratings add 8 points and Meshakhte's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Both sides at this match's level37%−3
- Rustavi's ratings45%+8
- Meshakhte's ratings55%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rustavi at home · Meshakhte away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Rustavi 32, Meshakhte 32.
Rustavi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Meshakhte have let in 10 there.
Meshakhte score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Rustavi have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Rustavi
- vs Spaeri29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 51%
- at FC Iberia 19995 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 28%
Meshakhte
- vs Dinamo Tbilisi29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 18%
- vs Gagra5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.