Regular Season - 33 · 20 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Torpedo Kutaisi Erovnuli Liga prediction

Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi

Our model says: Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 Torpedo Kutaisi

The model makes it 50% Dinamo Tbilisi, 25% draw, 25% Torpedo Kutaisi — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Dinamo Tbilisi 1.94, Torpedo Kutaisi 1.20.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Dinamo Tbilisi: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Dinamo Tbilisi's rating is built from 68 Erovnuli Liga matches and Torpedo Kutaisi's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.

Key facts

  • Dinamo Tbilisi are 3rd on 58 points from 32 games; Torpedo Kutaisi are 5th on 43 points from 32 games — Erovnuli Liga.
  • Dinamo Tbilisi are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Dila.
  • Torpedo Kutaisi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Meshakhte.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Torpedo Kutaisi 1–1 Dinamo Tbilisi.

More Erovnuli Liga predictions

All Erovnuli Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Torpedo Kutaisi

60%
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
39%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Dinamo Tbilisi win Draw Torpedo Kutaisi win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–08%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Dinamo Tbilisi first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Tbilisi at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Dinamo Tbilisi vs Torpedo Kutaisi

Dinamo Tbilisi

Erovnuli Liga

  • W2-0away to Dila8 November 2026
  • D0-0FC Iberia 199931 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Rustavi23 October 2026
  • W3-1Spaeri18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Dinamo Batumi11 October 2026

Torpedo Kutaisi

Erovnuli Liga

  • W3-2away to Meshakhte7 November 2026
  • W2-1Dila2 November 2026
  • L2-3away to FC Iberia 199926 October 2026
  • L0-1Rustavi18 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Spaeri10 October 2026

What these results say

  • 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Tbilisi had two goals or fewer.
  • Torpedo Kutaisi conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Torpedo Kutaisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Torpedo Kutaisi had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Dinamo Tbilisi32161065232+2058
5Torpedo Kutaisi321110115344+943

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Dinamo Tbilisi

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 42% today

Win 55%
Draw 32%
Defeat 18%

From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Torpedo Kutaisi

  • 6 September 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 1–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
  • 24 May 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–1 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
  • 7 April 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 0–0 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
  • 30 November 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 2–2 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
  • 27 September 2025Torpedo Kutaisi 1–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
  • 24 May 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 2–0 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga

Leading scorers: Dinamo Tbilisi and Torpedo Kutaisi

Dinamo Tbilisi

GoalsAssists

  • Rodrigo Silva Ramos22

Torpedo Kutaisi

GoalsAssists

  • K. Andrić82
  • G. Arabidze58
  • Felipe Pires30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 41.5% chance of the title and Torpedo Kutaisi 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Dinamo Tbilisi Torpedo Kutaisi
0.6 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.65
1.44 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.17
1.94 Model expected goals (this match) 1.20

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi against 1.20 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Dinamo Tbilisi's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.17 for Torpedo Kutaisi.

Dinamo Tbilisi carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.26 for Torpedo Kutaisi.

How the model reaches 50% for Dinamo Tbilisi to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Tbilisi to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Dinamo Tbilisi's ratings add 4 points and Torpedo Kutaisi's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 50%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage40%+4
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%+1
  4. Dinamo Tbilisi's ratings45%+4
  5. Torpedo Kutaisi's ratings50%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Dinamo TbilisiTorpedo Kutaisi
32Matches32
16W 10D 6LRecord11W 10D 11L
52 1.6 per gameGoals scored53 1.7 per game
32 1.0 per gameGoals conceded44 1.4 per game
10 of 32Clean sheets6 of 32
10 of 32Failed to score7 of 32
3 of 3Penalties scored2 of 2
61 1.9 per gameYellow cards64 2.0 per game
4Red cards6
4-3-3 6×Usual shape4-4-2 6×

Dinamo Tbilisi at home · Torpedo Kutaisi away

16Played16
7W 5D 4LRecord4W 6D 6L
24–17Goals for – against26–24
5 of 16Clean sheets2 of 16

League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Dinamo Tbilisi 32, Torpedo Kutaisi 32.

Dinamo Tbilisi scored 98115136
Torpedo Kutaisi conceded 8877312

Dinamo Tbilisi score most often in the 61–75 minute window (13 goals); Torpedo Kutaisi have let in 3 there.

Torpedo Kutaisi scored 756101013
Dinamo Tbilisi conceded 6311354

Torpedo Kutaisi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Dinamo Tbilisi have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Dinamo Tbilisi

Torpedo Kutaisi

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.