Samgurali
vs
Torpedo Kutaisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Samgurali 1–2 Torpedo Kutaisi
The model makes it 32% Samgurali, 24% draw, 44% Torpedo Kutaisi — fair odds of 3.13, 4.17 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Samgurali 1.65, Torpedo Kutaisi 2.03.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Torpedo Kutaisi: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Samgurali's rating is built from 68 Erovnuli Liga matches and Torpedo Kutaisi's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.
Key facts
- Samgurali are 7th on 39 points from 32 games; Torpedo Kutaisi are 5th on 43 points from 32 games — Erovnuli Liga.
- Samgurali are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Rustavi.
- Torpedo Kutaisi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to Meshakhte.
- Last 6 meetings: Torpedo Kutaisi 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 September 2026, ended Torpedo Kutaisi 3–2 Samgurali.
More Erovnuli Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Samgurali vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Has the model earned this number?
Torpedo Kutaisi at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Samgurali vs Torpedo Kutaisi
Samgurali
Erovnuli Liga
- L0-2away to Rustavi7 November 2026
- D0-0Spaeri31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Dinamo Batumi24 October 2026
- W2-0Meshakhte17 October 2026
- W3-0Gagra11 October 2026
Torpedo Kutaisi
Erovnuli Liga
- W3-2away to Meshakhte7 November 2026
- W2-1Dila2 November 2026
- L2-3away to FC Iberia 199926 October 2026
- L0-1Rustavi18 October 2026
- D3-3away to Spaeri10 October 2026
What these results say
- Torpedo Kutaisi conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Kutaisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Torpedo Kutaisi had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Samgurali | 32 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 39 |
| 5 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 53 | 44 | +9 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Samgurali
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Samgurali vs Torpedo Kutaisi
- 14 September 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 3–2 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 13 June 2026Samgurali 2–1 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 21 April 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 6–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
- 24 January 2026Torpedo Kutaisi 2–1 SamguraliFriendlies Clubs
- 22 November 2025Samgurali 2–4 Torpedo KutaisiErovnuli Liga
- 13 September 2025Torpedo Kutaisi 6–2 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Samgurali and Torpedo Kutaisi
Samgurali
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
Torpedo Kutaisi
GoalsAssists
- K. Andrić82
- G. Arabidze58
- Felipe Pires30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Samgurali against 2.03 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Samgurali's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/2.17 for Torpedo Kutaisi.
How the model reaches 44% for Torpedo Kutaisi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Torpedo Kutaisi to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Samgurali's ratings add 5 points and Torpedo Kutaisi's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Both sides at this match's level33%+1
- Samgurali's ratings38%+5
- Torpedo Kutaisi's ratings44%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Samgurali at home · Torpedo Kutaisi away
League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Samgurali 32, Torpedo Kutaisi 32.
Samgurali score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); Torpedo Kutaisi have let in 12 there.
Torpedo Kutaisi score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Samgurali have let in 11 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Samgurali
- at Dila30 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 26%
- at Dinamo Tbilisi5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 17%
Torpedo Kutaisi
- vs Gagra29 Nov · Erovnuli Ligawin 56%
- vs Dinamo Batumi5 Dec · Erovnuli Ligawin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.