Regular Season - 33 · 20 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Gagra vs Dila Erovnuli Liga prediction

David Petriashvili Stadium, Tbilisi

Our model says: Gagra 0–1 Dila

The model makes it 29% Gagra, 28% draw, 43% Dila — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Gagra 1.08, Dila 1.44.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Dila: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Gagra's rating is built from 68 Erovnuli Liga matches and Dila's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 528 matches.

Key facts

  • Gagra are 9th on 31 points from 32 games; Dila are 6th on 40 points from 32 games — Erovnuli Liga.
  • Gagra have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to FC Iberia 1999.
  • Dila have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Dinamo Tbilisi.
  • Last 6 meetings: Dila 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Dila 1–0 Gagra.

More Erovnuli Liga predictions

All Erovnuli Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Gagra vs Dila

51%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Gagra win Draw Dila win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 1–29%
  4. 0–09%
  5. 0–28%
  6. 1–08%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Gagra first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Dila at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Gagra vs Dila

Gagra

Erovnuli Liga

  • L0-1away to FC Iberia 19999 November 2026
  • D2-2Rustavi1 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Spaeri23 October 2026
  • L1-3Dinamo Batumi17 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Samgurali11 October 2026

Dila

Erovnuli Liga

  • L0-2Dinamo Tbilisi8 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Torpedo Kutaisi2 November 2026
  • L1-2away to Meshakhte24 October 2026
  • L0-2FC Iberia 199919 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Rustavi10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Gagra did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Gagra conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Dila did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Dila conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Gagra32613132846-1831
6Dila32124164141040

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Gagra

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 98% today

Win 95%
Draw 99%
Defeat 100%

From our Erovnuli Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Gagra vs Dila

  • 5 September 2026Dila 1–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 24 May 2026Gagra 2–0 DilaErovnuli Liga
  • 7 April 2026Dila 1–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 21 October 2025Dila 5–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 10 August 2025Gagra 0–1 DilaErovnuli Liga
  • 28 April 2025Dila 2–0 GagraErovnuli Liga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Gagra Dila
0.37 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
2.09 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.96
1.08 Model expected goals (this match) 1.44

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Dila the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Gagra against 1.44 for Dila. Gagra's attack/defence rating is 0.37/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.96 for Dila.

How the model reaches 43% for Dila to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dila to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Gagra's ratings add 5 points and Dila's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage32%−4
  3. Gagra's ratings37%+5
  4. Dila's ratings43%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

GagraDila
32Matches32
6W 13D 13LRecord12W 4D 16L
28 0.9 per gameGoals scored41 1.3 per game
46 1.4 per gameGoals conceded41 1.3 per game
5 of 32Clean sheets8 of 32
12 of 32Failed to score8 of 32
3 of 4Penalties scored2 of 2
56 1.8 per gameYellow cards72 2.3 per game
3Red cards4
4-1-4-1 5×Usual shape3-4-1-2 9×

Gagra at home · Dila away

16Played16
3W 8D 5LRecord6W 0D 10L
18–21Goals for – against21–23
3 of 16Clean sheets3 of 16

League matches only, Erovnuli Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Erovnuli Liga matches this season: Gagra 32, Dila 32.

Gagra scored 345657
Dila conceded 55761010

Gagra score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Dila have let in 10 there.

Dila scored 499368
Gagra conceded 11562712

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Gagra

Dila

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.