FC Nordsjaelland
vs
FC Midtjylland
Superliga prediction
Our model says: FC Nordsjaelland 1–2 FC Midtjylland
The model makes it 29% FC Nordsjaelland, 27% draw, 44% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 3.45, 3.70 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Nordsjaelland 1.25, FC Midtjylland 1.66.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Edge to FC Midtjylland: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. FC Nordsjaelland's rating is built from 43 Danish Superliga matches and FC Midtjylland's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 452 matches.
Key facts
- FC Nordsjaelland are 4th on 19 points from 11 games; FC Midtjylland are 2nd on 25 points from 11 games — Superliga.
- FC Nordsjaelland are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Lyngby.
- FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Viborg.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 September 2026, ended FC Midtjylland 2–2 FC Nordsjaelland.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 44% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland
FC Nordsjaelland
Superliga
- D3-3away to Lyngby18 October 2026
- D0-0Odense9 October 2026
- L1-4away to Viborg20 September 2026
- W2-0Aarhus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Midtjylland7 September 2026
FC Midtjylland
Superliga
- W2-1away to Viborg19 October 2026
- W2-1FC Copenhagen11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Odense19 September 2026
- W4-1Brondby14 September 2026
- D2-2FC Nordsjaelland7 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Nordsjaelland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Nordsjaelland scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 19 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Nordsjaelland
Chance to finish in the top six · 96% today
FC Midtjylland
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 56% today
From our Superliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Nordsjaelland vs FC Midtjylland
- 7 September 2026FC Midtjylland 2–2 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 10 May 2026FC Nordsjaelland 0–0 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 15 March 2026FC Midtjylland 0–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 14 December 2025FC Nordsjaelland 2–1 FC MidtjyllandDBU Pokalen
- 4 December 2025FC Midtjylland 5–1 FC NordsjaellandDBU Pokalen
- 30 November 2025FC Midtjylland 6–0 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
Leading scorers: FC Nordsjaelland and FC Midtjylland
FC Nordsjaelland
GoalsAssists
- A. Lind31
- H. Boe Rasmussen31
FC Midtjylland
GoalsAssists
- F. Etim53
- S. Iheanacho31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Nordsjaelland carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.89 for FC Midtjylland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.66 for FC Midtjylland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Nordsjaelland rate 0.77 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Midtjylland rate 1.00 and 0.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Nordsjaelland a 2.4% chance of the title and FC Midtjylland 55.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on FC Nordsjaelland v FC Midtjylland has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 29% / 27% / 44%: the biggest move is FC Midtjylland's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Nordsjaelland win29%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- FC Midtjylland win44%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Nordsjaelland against 1.66 for FC Midtjylland. FC Nordsjaelland's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/0.93 for FC Midtjylland.
How the model reaches 44% for FC Midtjylland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for FC Midtjylland to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, FC Nordsjaelland's ratings add 10 points and FC Midtjylland's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage33%−4
- FC Nordsjaelland's ratings43%+10
- FC Midtjylland's ratings44%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Nordsjaelland at home · FC Midtjylland away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC NordsjaellandFC Midtjylland
FC Nordsjaelland are 4th after 11 Superliga matches (between 1st and 7th so far); FC Midtjylland are 2nd after 11 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: FC Nordsjaelland 11, FC Midtjylland 11.
FC Nordsjaelland score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FC Midtjylland have let in 1 there.
FC Midtjylland score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); FC Nordsjaelland have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
FC Nordsjaelland
- at Monaco5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 15%
- at Randers FC8 Nov · Superligawin 46%
- vs FC Copenhagen22 Nov · Superligawin 33%
- vs Panathinaikos26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 28%
FC Midtjylland
- vs Ajax5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 39%
- vs Sonderjyske8 Nov · Superligawin 67%
- at Brondby23 Nov · Superligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.