Novorizontino
vs
Operario-PR
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Novorizontino 2–0 Operario-PR
The model makes it 66% Novorizontino, 20% draw, 14% Operario-PR — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (9%).
Expected goals: Novorizontino 2.61, Operario-PR 0.98.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Novorizontino are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Novorizontino are 3rd on 60 points from 33 games; Operario-PR are 10th on 48 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Novorizontino are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Ponte Preta.
- Operario-PR have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to America Mineiro.
- Last 6 meetings: Operario-PR 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended Operario-PR 2–1 Novorizontino.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Novorizontino vs Operario-PR
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novorizontino at 66% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Novorizontino vs Operario-PR
Novorizontino
- W5-1Ponte Preta12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife8 October 2026
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
- D0-0São Bernardo25 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ceara18 September 2026
Operario-PR
- L0-1away to America Mineiro17 October 2026
- L0-2Goias11 October 2026
- L1-2Botafogo SP7 October 2026
- L0-3away to Juventude2 October 2026
- D2-2Ceara26 September 2026
What these results say
- Novorizontino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Operario-PR did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Operario-PR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 59 | 28 | +31 | 60 |
| 10 | Operario-PR | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Novorizontino vs Operario-PR
- 12 July 2026Operario-PR 2–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 15 April 2026Operario-PR 1–1 NovorizontinoCopa Sul-Sudeste
- 12 October 2025Novorizontino 3–0 Operario-PRSerie B
- 23 June 2025Operario-PR 2–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 9 November 2024Novorizontino 0–1 Operario-PRSerie B
- 24 July 2024Operario-PR 0–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
Leading scorers: Novorizontino and Operario-PR
Novorizontino
GoalsAssists
- Robson155
- Romulo119
Operario-PR
GoalsAssists
- Boschilia134
- Vinícius Diniz71
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Novorizontino carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.3 for Operario-PR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.61 goals for Novorizontino and 0.98 for Operario-PR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Novorizontino rate 0.83 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Operario-PR rate 0.64 and 1.93.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Novorizontino a 37.4% chance of the title and Operario-PR 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Novorizontino against 0.98 for Operario-PR. Novorizontino's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.93 for Operario-PR.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Novorizontino at home · Operario-PR away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Novorizontino 33, Operario-PR 34.
Novorizontino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Operario-PR have let in 12 there.
Operario-PR score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); Novorizontino have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Novorizontino
- vs Fortaleza EC7 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
- at Criciuma14 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Operario-PR
- vs Sport Recife6 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
- at Ponte Preta14 Nov · Serie Bwin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.