Brondby
vs
Aarhus
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Brondby 2–1 Aarhus
The model makes it 38% Brondby, 26% draw, 36% Aarhus — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Brondby 1.61, Aarhus 1.54.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Brondby and Aarhus are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Brondby are 5th on 16 points from 10 games; Aarhus are 10th on 8 points from 10 games — Superliga.
- Brondby have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-2 win at home to Lyngby.
- Aarhus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sonderjyske.
- Last 6 meetings: Aarhus 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Aarhus 1–1 Brondby.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brondby vs Aarhus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brondby at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Brondby vs Aarhus
Brondby
- W5-2Lyngby11 October 2026
- L0-1FC Copenhagen20 September 2026
- L1-4away to FC Midtjylland14 September 2026
- L0-3Randers FC6 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Nordsjaelland30 August 2026
Aarhus
- W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
- D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
- L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
- D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
- L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026
What these results say
- Brondby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Brondby failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Brondby had three goals or more.
- Aarhus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aarhus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Brondby | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Aarhus | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brondby vs Aarhus
- 25 July 2026Aarhus 1–1 BrondbySuperliga
- 10 May 2026Brondby 0–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 22 March 2026Aarhus 0–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 19 October 2025Brondby 3–3 AarhusSuperliga
- 21 September 2025Aarhus 1–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 25 May 2025Aarhus 2–3 BrondbySuperliga
Leading scorers: Brondby and Aarhus
Brondby
GoalsAssists
- O. Hyseni33
Aarhus
GoalsAssists
- J. Serra40
- C. McCowatt32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Brondby carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.64 for Aarhus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Brondby and 1.54 for Aarhus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brondby rate 0.75 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aarhus rate 0.81 and 1.23.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Brondby a 0.5% chance of the title and Aarhus 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brondby the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Brondby against 1.54 for Aarhus. Brondby's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.23 for Aarhus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Brondby at home · Aarhus away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BrondbyAarhus
Brondby are 5th after 10 Superliga matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Aarhus are 10th after 10 (between 2nd and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Brondby 10, Aarhus 10.
Aarhus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Brondby have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Brondby
- at FC Copenhagen8 Nov · Superligawin 21%
- vs FC Midtjylland23 Nov · Superligawin 26%
- at Sonderjyske27 Nov · Superligawin 44%
Aarhus
- vs SC Braga5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
- vs AC Horsens8 Nov · Superligawin 48%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.