FC Midtjylland
vs
Ajax
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Midtjylland 1–0 Ajax
The model makes it 39% FC Midtjylland, 28% draw, 33% Ajax — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Midtjylland 1.45, Ajax 1.29.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 934 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. FC Midtjylland's rating is built from 43 Danish Superliga matches and Ajax's from 45 Eredivisie matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- FC Midtjylland are 16th on 1 point from 1 game; Ajax are 25th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Viborg.
- Ajax are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-2 win away to Groningen.
- Last 2 meetings: Ajax 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 November 2020, ended Ajax 3–1 FC Midtjylland.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Midtjylland vs Ajax
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Midtjylland at 39% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 3,406 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Midtjylland vs Ajax
FC Midtjylland
- D1-1away to Egnatia Rrogozhinë15 October 2026
Ajax
- L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs Ajax
- 25 November 2020Ajax 3–1 FC MidtjyllandUEFA Champions League
- 3 November 2020FC Midtjylland 1–2 AjaxUEFA Champions League
Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and Ajax
FC Midtjylland
GoalsAssists
- Cho Gue-Sung30
Ajax
GoalsAssists
- D. Klaassen50
- O. Gloukh40
- T. Arokodare31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Midtjylland carry a model rating of 6.89 against 7.01 for Ajax. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for FC Midtjylland and 1.29 for Ajax. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Midtjylland rate 1.00 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ajax rate 1.15 and 0.84.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Midtjylland the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Midtjylland against 1.29 for Ajax. FC Midtjylland's attack/defence rating is 1/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.15/0.84 for Ajax.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Midtjylland at home · Ajax away
League matches only, this season — FC Midtjylland in the Superliga, Ajax in the Eredivisie. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Midtjylland 11 in the Superliga, Ajax 9 in the Eredivisie.
FC Midtjylland score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Ajax have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
FC Midtjylland
- vs Sonderjyske8 Nov · Superligawin 67%
- at Brondby23 Nov · Superligawin 50%
Ajax
- at Twente8 Nov · Eredivisiewin 36%
- vs ADO Den Haag22 Nov · Eredivisiewin 69%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.