Sonderjyske
vs
FC Copenhagen
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Sonderjyske 1–2 FC Copenhagen
The model makes it 23% Sonderjyske, 22% draw, 55% FC Copenhagen — fair odds of 4.35, 4.55 and 1.82. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Sonderjyske 1.35, FC Copenhagen 2.37.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Copenhagen are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Sonderjyske's rating is built from 43 Danish Superliga matches and FC Copenhagen's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 451 matches.
Key facts
- Sonderjyske are 11th on 8 points from 11 games; FC Copenhagen are top on 25 points from 11 games — Superliga.
- Sonderjyske have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Silkeborg.
- FC Copenhagen have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Aarhus.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Copenhagen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 August 2026, ended FC Copenhagen 3–1 Sonderjyske.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Copenhagen at 55% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen
Sonderjyske
- W4-0Silkeborg18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Aarhus12 October 2026
- W4-2Randers FC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby13 September 2026
- L2-5AC Horsens6 September 2026
FC Copenhagen
- D1-1Aarhus18 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Midtjylland11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Brondby20 September 2026
- W2-0AC Horsens11 September 2026
- W5-0away to Odense6 September 2026
What these results say
- Sonderjyske scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sonderjyske conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sonderjyske had three goals or more.
- FC Copenhagen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sonderjyske | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 8 |
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 11 | +14 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sonderjyske vs FC Copenhagen
- 31 August 2026FC Copenhagen 3–1 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 7 December 2025FC Copenhagen 0–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 27 September 2025Sonderjyske 1–2 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
- 9 March 2025FC Copenhagen 1–1 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 30 October 2024Sonderjyske 1–2 FC CopenhagenDBU Pokalen
- 11 August 2024Sonderjyske 0–2 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
Leading scorers: Sonderjyske and FC Copenhagen
Sonderjyske
GoalsAssists
- M. Haidara40
FC Copenhagen
GoalsAssists
- M. Elyounoussi72
- B. Meling41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sonderjyske carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.82 for FC Copenhagen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Sonderjyske and 2.37 for FC Copenhagen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sonderjyske rate 0.72 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Copenhagen rate 1.00 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sonderjyske a 0% chance of the title and FC Copenhagen 44.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Copenhagen the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sonderjyske against 2.37 for FC Copenhagen. Sonderjyske's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.07 for FC Copenhagen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sonderjyske at home · FC Copenhagen away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SonderjyskeFC Copenhagen
Sonderjyske are 11th after 11 Superliga matches (between 11th and 12th so far); FC Copenhagen are 1st after 11 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Sonderjyske 11, FC Copenhagen 11.
Sonderjyske score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Copenhagen have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sonderjyske
- at FC Midtjylland8 Nov · Superligawin 14%
- vs Odense22 Nov · Superligawin 40%
- vs Brondby27 Nov · Superligawin 35%
- at Viborg7 Dec · Superligawin 23%
FC Copenhagen
- vs FC Iberia 19995 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 75%
- vs Brondby8 Nov · Superligawin 56%
- at FC Nordsjaelland22 Nov · Superligawin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.